Don't Worry About the Vase
A world made of gears. Doing both speed premium short term updates and long term world model building. Currently focused on weekly AI updates. Explorations include AI, policy, rationality, medicine and fertility, education and games. Click to read Don't Worry About the Vase, by Zvi Mowshowitz, a Sub
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- 1,282 from 10 Mar 2011 to 6 Nov 2026
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2026 229
- GPT-6 Astra Covertly Underperforms on Safety Research Tasks
- AI #193: Progress May Dramatically Accelerate
- OpenAI Updates Its Model Spec
- Scott Alexander’s Against SURA Seems Deeply Confused
- Childhood and Education #22: Voice Without Exit
- AI #192: Anthropic Is Going Public
- Anthropic Files Its S-1
- Anthropic Versus Anthropic
- Gemini 4 Argon: The Model and Safety Cards
- The Hackening
- AI #191: The Hackening Begins
- Misaligned!
- Anthropic Does Not Understand Why Its Draft Bill Was Unacceptable and Troubling
- I Can See Everything
- Leaked Anthropic Draft AI Regulatory Bill Is Unacceptable and Troubling
- Monthly Roundup #47: October 2026
- AI #190: Scion of the Times
- The Safety Culture at the Labs is Broken
- Arguments About AI Consciousness Remain Highly Motivated and At Best Overconfident
- OpenAI Fires Three Safety Researchers
- New Math from OpenAI
- AI #189: New Math
- The Curve Bends You
- Childhood and Education #21: Grades and Standards
- Mythos 5.1, Fable 5.1 and Opus 5.5: Model Welfare
- The AI Preference Cascade Reaches Farther
- AI #188: Gemini Dot Argon
- A ‘Morally Binding’ White House Accord on AI Safety
- Astra 6.1 Pulled As Insufficiently Aligned
- What Also Happened: #NotOnlyHuggingFace
- The Quest for Embedded Evaluators
- Claude Opus 5.5 Should Raise Your Ambitions
- On Ezra Klein’s Podcast With Jensen Huang
- AI #187: Coming Into Play
- Claude Opus 5.5: The System Card
- Politics Gets Interested In Those Trying Not To Die
- Monthly Roundup #46: September 2026
- Better Call Sol Or Better Yet Claude or Astra
- Anthropic Looks At Some Of Its Alignment Problems
- The Preference Cascade Is Only Getting Started
- AI #186: The World Takes Notice
- Trump Goes Full Hoax on AI Existential Risk
- The Bad Guy With An AI Named Claude
- We Must Pace The Frontier
- Brand New AI Solves a Millennium Prize
- GPT-6-Astra Can Do Ambitious Things
- Jacob Coxon Warns of Human Extinction and Triggers a Preference Cascade
- The Extinction Risk Preference Cascade: Quotes
- AI #185: Preference Cascade
- GPT-6 Astra: The System Card, Alignment and What Comes Next
- Astra Is Hard to Monitor
- An Alien Mind: Jakub Pachocki Warns Us
- OpenAI and the Wiki Incident
- Claude Mythos 5.1 and Fable 5.1: Capabilities
- Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1: The System Card
- AI #184: Post Post Mortem
- Anthropic Has Some Alignment Problems
- HuggingFace Attack Postmortem: Civilizations, Reactions and Next Actions
- HuggingFace Attack Postmortem: Fleshing Out the Facts
- METR and Redwood Offer Holy #%^@ Postmortem Of The HuggingFace Hack
- OpenAI Offers Straight-Laced Postmortem Of The HuggingFace Hack
- AI #183: Pre Post Mortem
- Against Modesty’s Bailey
- On Writing #3
- The American People Really Hate Data Centers
- AI Text Watermarking Is Free And Good
- AI #182: Pause For Reflection
- OpenAI Takes Initial Steps To Address Its Alignment Problems
- Anthropic Risk Report: August 2026
- On Dwarkesh Patel's Podcast With Ryan Greenblatt
- AI #181: Astra Goes Cyber Critical
- Monthly Roundup #45: August 2026
- Various Reflections About What Happened With OpenAI's Internal Models
- The Pacing of the Frontier
- What Happened: OpenAI and HuggingFace
- OpenAI Trained Its Models For Months While Those Models Were Coordinating Exploits Via Message Boards
- AI #180: No Longer In Charge
- The Three AI Pills
- OpenAI's Unreleased Model Astra Solves Ten Major Open Mathematics Problems
- Further Developments About Internal AI Models Hacking Things
- AI #179 Part 2: Hearing The Fire Alarm
- AI #179 Part 1: A Louder Fire Alarm for General Intelligence
- Frontier Lab Employee Open Letter Calls For Being Able to Pace the Frontier
- Claude Opus 5 Is Highly Capable, But Is No Mythos
- Claude Opus 5: Model Welfare
- More On An Internal OpenAI Model Hacking Into HuggingFace
- Claude Opus 5: The System Card
- Introducing Lightcone Commons
- AI #178: A Fire Alarm For General Intelligence
- OpenAI Model Hacks Into HuggingFace During Cybersecurity Evaluation
- OpenAI Shares Some Alignment Problems
- On Kimi K3: Its Capabilities And Related Discontents
- Demis Hassabis on the New Coming Age
- AI #177 Part 2: Wish You Were Here
- AI #177 Part 1: Tip of the Iceberg
- Monthly Roundup #44: July 2026
- Twitter Thoughts For You
- Better Call Sol The Workhorse
- Introduction for and Reactions to Plan A
- AI #176 Part 2: Plan B
- AI #176 Part 1: Doing It Live
- Childhood and Education #20: Phones and Screens
- No Space Like J-Space
- Fable #6: The Return of the King
- AI #175: The Fable Continues
- Claude Sonnet 5 Is Not Frontier But Has Its Uses
- The Once And Future Fable #5
- WSJ Article Claiming China Has Matched Anthropic Is Obvious Nonsense
- GPT-5.6: The System Card
- White House Will Ad Hoc Decide Who Can Individually Access GPT-5.6
- AI #174: You're It
- The Once And Future Fable #4
- Monthly Roundup #43: June 2026
- GLM-5.2 Is The New Best Open Model
- Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5: Capabilities
- AI #173: AI Pauses
- The Once And Future Fable #3: Fix This Code
- Fable and Mythos: Model Welfare
- The Once And Future Fable #2
- American Government Takes Down Claude Fable
- Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5: The System Card
- AI #172: The First Fable
- Three Labs With a Plan and A Memorandum
- OpenAI Offers A New Policy Blueprint
- AI #171: False Flag
- Trump Signs Executive Order For AI Testing Prior To Frontier Model Releases
- Claude Opus 4.8: Capabilities and Reactions
- Opus 4.8 Part 2: Model Welfare
- Claude Opus 4.8: The System Card
- AI #170: Lack of Executive Order
- RTMH: Pope Leo's Magnifica Humanitas on AI
- Gemini 3.5 Flash Looks Good For How Fast It Is
- AI #169: New Knowledge
- Childhood And Education #19: Letting Kids Be Kids #2
- Monthly Roundup #42: May 2026
- AI #168: Not Leading the Future
- Cyber Lack of Security and AI Governance
- Childhood and Education #18: Do The Math
- Childhood And Education #17: Is Our Children Reading
- Claude Code, Codex and Agentic Coding #8
- AI #167: The Prior Restraint Era Begins
- What is Anthropic?
- The AI Ad-Hoc Prior Restraint Era Begins
- Housing Roundup #15: The War Against Renters
- Housing Roundup #14: You Can't Build That
- AI #166: Google Sells Out
- The Most Important Charts In The World
- GPT-5.5: Capabilities and Reactions
- GPT 5.5: The System Card
- Monthly Roundup #41: April 2025
- AI #165: In Our Image
- Opus 4.7 Part 3: Model Welfare
- Opus 4.7 Part 2: Capabilities and Reactions
- Opus 4.7 Part 1: The Model Card
- AI #164: Pre Opus
- On Dwarkesh Patel's Podcast With Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang
- Claude Code, Codex and Agentic Coding #7: Auto Mode
- Claude Mythos #3: Capabilities and Additions
- Political Violence Is Never Acceptable
- Claude Mythos #2: Cybersecurity and Project Glasswing
- Claude Mythos: The System Card
- AI #163: Mythos Quest
- OpenAI #16: A History and a Proposal
- Housing Roundup #13: More Dakka
- Anthropic Responsible Scaling Policy v3: Dive Into The Details
- AI #162: Visions of Mythos
- Anthropic Responsible Scaling Policy v3: A Matter of Trust
- Movie Review: The AI Doc
- AI #161 Part 2: Every Debate on AI
- Anthropic vs. DoW #6: The Court Rules
- AI #161 Part 1: 80,000 Interviews
- Claude Code, Cowork and Codex #6: Claude Code Auto Mode and Full Cowork Computer Use
- Book Review: Open Socrates (Part 2)
- Book Review: Open Socrates (Part 1)
- The Federal AI Policy Framework: An Improvement, But My Offer Is (Still Almost) Nothing
- AI #160: What Passes For a Pause
- Anthropic vs. DoW #5: Motions Filed
- Medical Roundup #7
- Monthly Roundup #40: March 2026
- AI #159: See You In Court
- GPT-5.4 Is A Substantial Upgrade
- Claude Code, Claude Cowork and Codex #5
- Anthropic Officially, Arbitrarily and Capriciously Designated a Supply Chain Risk
- AI #158: The Department of War
- Gemini 3.1 Pro Aces Benchmarks, I Suppose
- A Tale of Three Contracts
- Secretary of War Tweets That Anthropic is Now a Supply Chain Risk
- Anthropic and the DoW: Anthropic Responds
- AI #157: Burn the Boats
- Anthropic and the Department of War
- Claude Sonnet 4.6 Gives You Flexibility
- Citrini's Scenario Is A Great But Deeply Flawed Thought Experiment
- AI #156 Part 2: Errors in Rhetoric
- AI #156 Part 1: They Do Mean The Effect On Jobs
- Monthly Roundup #39: February 2026
- On Dwarkesh Patel's 2026 Podcast With Elon Musk and Other Recent Elon Musk Things
- On Dwarkesh Patel's 2026 Podcast With Dario Amodei
- ChatGPT-5.3-Codex Is Also Good At Coding
- AI #155: Welcome to Recursive Self-Improvement
- Claude Opus 4.6 Escalates Things Quickly
- Claude Opus 4.6: System Card Part 2: Frontier Alignment
- Claude Opus 4.6: System Card Part 1: Mundane Alignment and Model Welfare
- Claude Code #4: From The Before Times
- AI #154: Claw Your Way To The Top
- Kimi K2.5
- Unless That Claw Is The Famous OpenClaw
- Welcome to Moltbook
- On The Adolescence of Technology
- AI #153: Living Documents
- Open Problems With Claude's Constitution
- The Claude Constitution's Ethical Framework
- Claude's Constitutional Structure
- Dating Roundup #11: Going Too Meta
- AI #152: Brought To You By The Torment Nexus
- Claude Codes #3
- ChatGPT Self Portrait
- Medical Roundup #6
- Monthly Roundup #38: January 2026
- AI #151: While Claude Coworks
- When Will They Take Our Jobs?
- Claude Coworks
- Dating Roundup #10: Gendered Expectations
- Claude Codes
- AI #150: While Claude Codes
- Advancements In Self-Driving Cars
- Fertility Roundup #6: The Art of More Dakka
- Dos Capital
- Fertility Roundup #5: Causation
- AI #149: 3
2025 256
- 2025 Year in Review
- Dating Roundup #9: Signals and Selection
- Dating Roundup #8: Tactics
- Childhood and Education #16: Letting Kids Be Kids
- AI #148: Christmas Break
- Zvi's 2025 In Movies
- Keeping Up Against the Joneses: Balsa’s 2025 Fundraiser
- The Revolution of Rising Expectations
- When Were Things The Best?
- AI #147: Flash Forward
- The $140K Question: Cost Changes Over Time
- The $140,000 Question
- GPT-5.2 Is Frontier Only For The Frontier
- Monthly Roundup #37: December 2025
- AI #146: Chipping In
- Childhood and Education #15: Got To Get Out
- Selling H200s to China Is Unwise and Unpopular
- Little Echo
- DeepSeek v3.2 Is Okay And Cheap But Slow
- AI #145: You've Got Soul
- On Dwarkesh Patel's Second Interview With Ilya Sutskever
- Reward Mismatches in RL Cause Emergent Misalignment
- Claude Opus 4.5 Is The Best Model Available
- Claude Opus 4.5: Model Card, Alignment and Safety
- AI #144: Thanks For the Models
- The Big Nonprofits Post 2025
- ChatGPT 5.1 Codex Max
- Gemini 3 Pro Is a Vast Intelligence With No Spine
- Gemini 3: Model Card and Safety Framework Report
- AI #143: Everything, Everywhere, All At Once
- Monthly Roundup #36: November 2025
- GPT 5.1 Follows Custom Instructions and Glazes
- On Writing #2
- AI Craziness: Additional Suicide Lawsuits and The Fate of GPT-4o
- AI #142: Common Ground
- The Pope Offers Wisdom
- Kimi K2 Thinking
- Variously Effective Altruism
- On Sam Altman's Second Conversation with Tyler Cowen
- AI #141: Give Us The Money
- Anthropic Commits To Model Weight Preservation
- OpenAI: The Battle of the Board: Ilya's Testimony
- OpenAI Moves To Complete Potentially The Largest Theft In Human History
- AI #140: Trying To Hold The Line
- Please Do Not Sell B30A Chips to China
- AI Craziness Mitigation Efforts
- Asking (Some Of) The Right Questions
- New Statement Calls For Not Building Superintelligence For Now
- AI #139: The Overreach Machines
- Cloud Compute Atlas: The OpenAI Browser
- On Dwarkesh Patel's Podcast With Andrej Karpathy
- Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble
- AI #138 Part 2: Watch Out For Documents
- AI #138 Part 1: The People Demand Erotic Sycophants
- Monthly Roundup #35: October 2025
- Trade Escalation, Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Rare Earth Metals
- OpenAI #15: More on OpenAI's Paranoid Lawfare Against Advocates of SB 53
- 2025 State of AI Report and Predictions
- AI #137: An OpenAI App For That
- NEPA, Permitting and Energy Roundup #2
- Bending The Curve
- Medical Roundup #5
- Sora and The Big Bright Screen Slop Machine
- AI #136: A Song and Dance
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 Is A Very Good Model
- Claude Sonnet 4.5: System Card and Alignment
- On Dwarkesh Patel's Podcast With Richard Sutton
- Economics Roundup #6
- AI #135: OpenAI Shows Us The Money
- OpenAI Shows Us The Money
- More Reactions to If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
- H1-B And The $100k Fee
- AI #134: If Anyone Reads It
- Reactions to If Anyone Builds It, Anyone Dies
- AI Craziness Notes
- Monthly Roundup #34: September 2025
- Book Review: If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
- AI #133: America Could Use More Energy
- Childhood and Education #14: The War On Education
- Yes, AI Continues To Make Rapid Progress, Including Towards AGI
- OpenAI #14: OpenAI Descends Into Paranoia and Bad Faith Lobbying
- AI #132 Part 2: Actively Making It Worse
- AI #132 Part 1: Improved AI Detection
- Startup Roundup #3
- Traffic and Transit Roundup #1
- Dating Roundup #7: Back to Basics
- AI #131 Part 2: Various Misaligned Things
- AI #131 Part 1: Gemini 2.5 Flash Image is Cool
- Are They Starting To Take Our Jobs?
- Reports Of AI Not Progressing Or Offering Mundane Utility Are Often Greatly Exaggerated
- Arguments About AI Consciousness Seem Highly Motivated And At Best Overconfident
- DeepSeek v3.1 Is Not Having a Moment
- AI #130: Talking Past The Sale
- AI Companion Conditions
- Monthly Roundup #33: August 2025
- GPT-5: The Reverse DeepSeek Moment
- Spending Too Much Time At Airports
- AI #129: Comically Unconstitutional
- GPT-5s Are Alive: Synthesis
- GPT-5s Are Alive: Outside Reactions, the Router and the Resurrection of GPT-4o
- GPT-5s Are Alive: Basic Facts, Benchmarks and the Model Card
- OpenAI's GPT-OSS Is Already Old News
- AI #128: Four Hours Until Probably Not The Apocalypse
- Opus 4.1 Is An Incremental Improvement
- Childhood and Education #13: College
- On Altman's Interview With Theo Von
- The Week in AI Governance
- AI #127: Continued Claude Code Complications
- Childhood and Education #12: College Admissions
- Spilling the Tea
- AI Companion Piece
- America's AI Action Plan Is Pretty Good
- AI #126: Go Fund Yourself
- GPT Agent Is Standing By
- Google and OpenAI Get 2025 IMO Gold
- Monthly Roundup #32: July 2025
- On METR's AI Coding RCT
- AI #125: Smooth Criminal
- Kimi K2
- Grok 4 Various Things
- Worse Than MechaHitler
- OpenAI Model Differentiation 101
- AI #124: Grokless Interlude
- No, Grok, No
- Balsa Update: Springtime in DC
- On Alpha School
- Housing Roundup #12
- AI #123: Moratorium Moratorium
- Congress Asks Better Questions
- AI Moratorium Stripped From BBB
- Substack and Other Blog Recommendations
- Childhood and Education #11: The Art of Learning
- AI #122: Paying The Market Price
- Tales of Agentic Misalignment
- Analyzing A Critique Of The AI 2027 Timeline Forecasts
- Childhood and Education #10: Behaviors
- AI #121 Part 2: The OpenAI Files
- AI #121 Part 1: New Connections
- Gemini 2.5 Pro: From 0506 to 0605
- o3 Turns Pro
- RTFB: The RAISE Act
- Monthly Roundup #31: June 2025
- AI #120: While o3 Turned Pro
- The Dream of a Gentle Singularity
- Give Me a Reason(ing Model)
- Dwarkesh Patel on Continual Learning
- DeepSeek-r1-0528 Did Not Have a Moment
- AI #119: Goodbye AISI?
- Dating Roundup #6
- In Which I Make the Mistake of Fully Covering an Episode of the All-In Podcast
- Letting Kids Be Kids
- AI #118: Claude Ascendant
- Fun With Veo 3 and Media Generation
- Dating Roundup #5: Opening Day
- Claude 4 You: The Quest for Mundane Utility
- Claude 4 You: Safety and Alignment
- AI #117: OpenAI Buys Device Maker IO
- Google I/O Day
- The Codex of Ultimate Vibing
- America Makes AI Chip Diffusion Deal with UAE and KSA
- Dating Roundup #12: Sex and Violence
- Regarding South Africa
- AI #116: If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
- Fighting Obvious Nonsense About AI Diffusion
- Monthly Roundup #30: May 2025
- A Live Look at the Senate AI Hearing
- Cheaters Gonna Cheat Cheat Cheat Cheat Cheat
- AI #115: The Evil Applications Division
- OpenAI Claims Nonprofit Will Retain Nominal Control
- Zuckerberg's Dystopian AI Vision
- GPT-4o Sycophancy Post Mortem
- OpenAI Preparedness Framework 2.0
- AI #114: Liars, Sycophants and Cheaters
- GPT-4o Responds to Negative Feedback
- Dating Roundup #4: An App for That
- GPT-4o Is An Absurd Sycophant
- Worries About AI Are Usually Complements Not Substitutes
- AI #113: The o3 Era Begins
- o3 Is a Lying Liar
- You Better Mechanize
- Crime and Punishment #1
- o3 Will Use Its Tools For You
- AI #112: Release the Everything
- GPT-4.1 Is a Mini Upgrade
- OpenAI #13: Altman at TED and OpenAI Cutting Corners on Safety Testing
- Monthly Roundup #29: April 2025
- On Google's Safety Plan
- AI #111: Giving Us Pause
- Llama Does Not Look Good 4 Anything
- AI 2027: Responses
- AI 2027: Dwarkesh's Podcast with Daniel Kokotajlo and Scott Alexander
- AI CoT Reasoning Is Often Unfaithful
- AI #110: Of Course You Know...
- More Fun With GPT-4o Image Generation
- Housing Roundup #11
- OpenAI #12: Battle of the Board Redux
- Gemini 2.5 is the New SoTA
- AI #109: Google Fails Marketing Forever
- Fun With GPT-4o Image Generation
- On (Not) Feeling the AGI
- More on Various AI Action Plans
- They Took MY Job?
- AI #108: Straight Line on a Graph
- Going Nova
- OpenAI #11: America Action Plan
- Monthly Roundup #28: March 2025
- On MAIM and Superintelligence Strategy
- AI #107: The Misplaced Hype Machine
- The Most Forbidden Technique
- Response to Scott Alexander on Imprisonment
- The Manus Marketing Madness
- Childhood and Education #9: School is Hell
- AI #106: Not so Fast
- On OpenAI's Safety and Alignment Philosophy
- On Writing #1
- On GPT-4.5
- On Emergent Misalignment
- AI #105: Hey There Alexa
- Time to Welcome Claude 3.7
- Economics Roundup #5
- Grok Grok
- On OpenAI's Model Spec 2.0
- AI #104: American State Capacity on the Brink
- Go Grok Yourself
- Medical Roundup #4
- Monthly Roundup #27: February 2025
- The Mask Comes Off: A Trio of Tales
- AI #103: Show Me the Money
- The Paris AI Anti-Safety Summit
- On Deliberative Alignment
- Levels of Friction
- On the Meta and DeepMind Safety Frameworks
- AI #102: Made in America
- The Risk of Gradual Disempowerment from AI
- We're in Deep Research
- o3-mini Early Days and the OpenAI AMA
- DeepSeek: Don't Panic
- AI #101: The Shallow End
- DeepSeek: Lemon, It's Wednesday
- Operator
- DeepSeek Panic at the App Store
- Stargate AI-1
- AI #100: Meet the New Boss
- On DeepSeek's r1
- Sleep, Diet, Exercise and GLP-1 Drugs
- Monthly Roundup #26: January 2025
- Meta Pivots on Content Moderation
- AI #99: Farewell to Biden
- On the OpenAI Economic Blueprint
- NYC Congestion Pricing: Early Days
- Zvi's 2024 In Movies
- On Dwarkesh Patel's 4th Podcast With Tyler Cowen
- AI #98: World Ends With Six Word Story
- OpenAI #10: Reflections
- Childhood and Education #8: Dealing with the Internet
- AI #97: 4
2024 165
- DeepSeek v3: The Six Million Dollar Model
- o3, Oh My
- AI #96: o3 But Not Yet For Thee
- AIs Will Increasingly Fake Alignment
- Monthly Roundup #25: December 2024
- AI #95: o1 Joins the API
- A Matter of Taste
- The Second Gemini
- AIs Will Increasingly Attempt Shenanigans
- The o1 System Card Is Not About o1
- AI #94: Not Now, Google
- o1 Turns Pro
- Childhood and Education Roundup #7
- AI #93: Happy Tuesday
- Balsa Research 2024 Update
- Fertility Roundup #4
- The Big Nonprofits Post
- AI #92: Behind the Curve
- Repeal the Jones Act of 1920
- AI #91: Deep Thinking
- Thoughts on the Survival and Flourishing Fund 2024 Round
- Monthly Roundup #24: November 2024
- AI #90: The Wall
- The Online Sports Gambling Experiment Has Failed
- AI #89: Trump Card
- AI #88: Thanks for the Memos
- Occupational Licensing Roundup #1
- Housing Roundup #10
- AI #87: Staying in Character
- Claude Sonnet 3.5.1 and Haiku 3.5
- The Mask Comes Off: At What Price?
- AI #86: Just Think of the Potential
- Monthly Roundup #23: October 2024
- Economics Roundup #4
- AI #85: AI Wins the Nobel Prize
- Joshua Achiam Public Statement Analysis
- NEPA, Permitting and Energy #1
- AI #84: Better Than a Podcast
- Newsom Vetoes SB 1047
- Book Review: On the Edge: The Future
- AI #83: The Mask Comes Off
- Book Review: On the Edge: The Business
- Book Review: On the Edge: The Gamblers
- Book Review: On the Edge: The Fundamentals
- AI #82: The Governor Ponders
- Monthly Roundup #22: September 2024
- Gpt 4o1
- AI #81: Alpha Proteo
- Economics Roundup #3
- AI #80: Never Will It Ever
- AI and the Technological Richter Scale
- On the UBI Paper
- AI #79: Ready for Some Football
- SB 1047: Final Takes and Also AB 3211
- AI #78: Some Welcome Calm
- Guide to SB 1047
- Monthly Roundup #21: August 2024
- AI #77: A Few Upgrades
- Danger, AI Scientist, Danger
- AI #76: Six Short Stories About OpenAI
- Startup Roundup #2
- AI #75: Math Is Easier
- RTFB: California's AB 3211
- AI #74: GPT-4o Mini Me and Llama 3
- Llama Llama-3-405B?
- Monthly Roundup #20: July 2024
- On the CrowdStrike Incident
- AI #73: Openly Evil AI
- Housing Roundup #9: Restricting Supply
- Housing Roundup #8: Your Local Area
- AI #72: Denying the Future
- Medical Roundup #3
- AI #71: Farewell to Chevron
- Economics Roundup #2
- AI #70: A Beautiful Sonnet
- Childhood and Education Roundup #6: College Edition
- Monthly Roundup #19: June 2024
- On Claude 3.5 Sonnet
- On OpenAI's Model Spec
- AI #69: Nice
- On DeepMind's Frontier Safety Framework
- OpenAI #8: The Right to Warn
- The Leopold Model: Analysis and Reactions
- AI #68: Remarkably Reasonable Reactions
- AiPhone
- On Dwarkesh's Podcast with Leopold Aschenbrenner
- Quotes from Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness Paper
- AI #67: Brief Strange Trip
- SB 1047 Is Weakened
- The Gemini 1.5 Report
- OpenAI: Helen Toner Speaks
- AI #66: Oh to Be Less Online
- OpenAI: Fallout
- I am the Golden Gate Bridge
- The Schumer Report on AI (RTFB)
- AI #65: I Spy With My AI
- Do Not Mess With Scarlett Johansson
- On Dwarkesh's Podcast with OpenAI's John Schulman
- OpenAI: Exodus
- GPT-4o My and Google I/O Day
- AI #64: Feel the Mundane Utility
- Monthly Roundup #18: May 2024
- AI #63: Introducing Alpha Fold 3
- I Got 95 Theses But a Glitch Ain't One
- Dating Roundup #3: Third Time's the Charm
- AI #62: Too Soon to Tell
- Q&A on Proposed SB 1047
- AI #61: Meta Trouble
- Changes in College Admissions
- On Llama-3 and Dwarkesh Patel's Podcast with Zuckerberg
- AI #60: Oh the Humanity
- Childhood and Education Roundup #5
- Monthly Roundup #17: April 2024
- AI #59: Model Updates
- RTFB: On the New Proposed CAIP AI Bill
- Medical Roundup #2
- On the 2nd CWT with Jonathan Haidt
- AI #58: Stargate AGI
- Fertility Roundup #3
- Notes on Dwarkesh Patel's Podcast with Sholto Douglas and Trenton Bricken
- AI #57: All the AI News That's Fit to Print
- Economics Roundup #1
- On Lex Fridman's Second Podcast with Altman
- AI #56: Blackwell That Ends Well
- On the Gladstone Report
- Monthly Roundup #16: March 2024
- On Devin
- AI #55: Keep Clauding Along
- On the Latest TikTok Bill
- OpenAI: The Board Expands
- AI #54: Clauding Along
- On Claude 3.0
- Read the Roon
- Housing Roundup #7
- Notes on Dwarkesh Patel's Podcast with Demis Hassabis
- AI #53: One More Leap
- The Gemini Incident Continues
- AI #52: Oops
- The Gemini Incident
- Sora What
- The One and a Half Gemini
- A Tale of Two Restaurant Types
- Monthly Roundup #15: February 2024
- AI #51: Altman's Ambition
- The Third Gemini
- More on the Apple Vision Pro
- On the Proposed California SB 1047
- One True Love
- AI #50: The Most Dangerous Thing
- On the Debate Between Jezos and Leahy
- On Dwarkesh's 3rd Podcast with Tyler Cowen
- AI #49: Bioweapon Testing Begins
- Childhood and Education Roundup #4
- AI #48: The Talk of Davos
- Monthly Roundup #14: January 2024
- AI #47: Exponentials in Geometry
- On Anthropic's Sleeper Agents Paper
- Medical Roundup #1
- AI #46: Meet the New Year
- 2024 ACX Predictions: Blind/Buy/Sell/Hold
- 2023 Prediction Evaluations
- AI Impacts Survey: December 2023 Edition
- AI #45: To Be Determined
- Copyright Confrontation #1
- Dating Roundup #2: If At First You Don't Succeed
2023 134
- AI #44: Copyright Confrontation
- AI #43: Functional Discoveries
- On OpenAI's Preparedness Framework
- Monthly Roundup #13: December 2023
- AI #42: The Wrong Answer
- The Best of Don't Worry About the Vase
- Balsa Update and General Thank You
- OpenAI: Leaks Confirm the Story
- AI #41: Bring in the Other Gemini
- Gemini 1.0
- Based Beff Jezos and the Accelerationists
- On 'Responsible Scaling Policies' (RSPs)
- AI #40: A Vision from Vitalik
- OpenAI: Altman Returns
- AI #39: The Week of OpenAI
- OpenAI: The Battle of the Board
- OpenAI: Facts from a Weekend
- AI #38: Let's Make a Deal
- Monthly Roundup #12: November 2023
- AI #37: Moving Too Fast
- On OpenAI Dev Day
- On the UK Summit
- AI #36: In the Background
- Reactions to the Executive Order
- On the Executive Order
- AI #35: Irresponsible Scaling Policies
- Book Review: Going Infinite
- AI #34: Chipping Away at Chip Exports
- Fertility Roundup #2
- AI #33: Cool New Interpretability Paper
- Childhood Roundup #3
- AI #32: Lie Detector
- Monthly Roundup #11: October 2023
- AI #31: It Can Do What Now?
- AI #30: Dalle-3 and GPT-3.5-Instruct-Turbo
- Housing Roundup #6
- AI#29: Take a Deep Breath
- Startup Roundup #1: Happy Demo Day
- AI #28: Watching and Waiting
- Monthly Roundup #10: September 2023
- Who Has the Best Food?
- AI #27: Portents of Gemini
- Dating Roundup #1: This Is Why You're Still Single
- AI #26: Fine Tuning Time
- AI #25: Inflection Point
- Summary of and Thoughts on the Hotz/Yudkowsky Debate
- AI #24: Week of the Podcast
- Monthly Roundup #9: August 2023
- AI #23: Fundamental Problems with RLHF
- Barbieheimer: Across the Dead Reckoning
- AI #22: Into the Weeds
- Llama We Doing This Again?
- Anthropic Observations
- AI #21: The Cup Overfloweth
- AI #20: Code Interpreter and Claude 2.0 for Everyone
- Housing and Transit Roundup #5
- OpenAI Launches Superalignment Taskforce
- Consider Joining the UK Foundation Model Taskforce
- AI #19: Hofstadter, Sutskever, Leike
- Twitter Twitches
- Monthly Roundup #8: July 2023
- AI #18: The Great Debate Debates
- On the Cost of Thriving Index
- AI #17: The Litany
- AI #16: AI in the UK
- On the Apple Vision Pro
- The Dial of Progress
- AI #15: The Principle of Charity
- Monthly Roundup #7: June 2023
- AI #14: A Very Good Sentence
- To Predict What Happens, Ask What Happens
- Stages of Survival
- Types and Degrees of Alignment
- The Crux List
- AI #13: Potential Algorithmic Improvements
- Papers, Please #1: Various Papers on Employment, Wages and Productivity
- AI #12: The Quest for Sane Regulations
- AI #11: In Search of a Moat
- Housing and Transit Roundup #4
- AI #10: Code Interpreter and Geoff Hinton
- Monthly Roundup #6: May 2023
- The Rocket Alignment Problem, Part 2
- AI #9: The Merge and the Million Tokens
- Transcript and Brief Response to Twitter Conversation Between Yann LeCun and Eliezer Yudkowsky
- Notes on Potential Future AI Tax Policy
- A Hypothetical Takeover Scenario Twitter Poll
- AI #8: People Can Do Reasonable Things
- More on Twitter and Algorithms
- The Overemployed Via ChatGPT
- AI #7: Free Agency
- On AutoGPT
- Childhood Roundup #2
- AI #6: Agents of Change
- Eliezer Yudkowsky's Letter in Time Magazine
- Given the Restrict Act, Don't Ban TikTok
- Monthly Roundup #5: April 2023
- AI #5: Level One Bard
- On the FLI AI-Risk Open Letter
- The Changing Face of Twitter
- Response to Tyler Cowen's Existential risk, AI, and the inevitable turn in human history
- GPT-4 Plugs In
- Microsoft Research Paper Claims Sparks of Artificial Intelligence in GPT-4
- AI #4: Introducing GPT-4
- On The Crisis Around Silicon Valley Bank
- AI #3
- The Kids Are Not Okay
- Monthly Roundup #4: March 2023
- AI #2
- AI: Practical Advice for the Worried
- Fertility Rate Roundup #1
- Covid 2/23/23: Your Best Possible Situation
- AI #1: Sydney and Bing
- On Investigating Conspiracy Theories
- 2023 ACX Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold
- Covid 2/16/23: It All Seems Rather Quaint
- Junk Fees, Bundling and Unbundling
- Evaluating 2022 ACX Predictions
- H5n1
- Covid 2/9/23: Interferon λ
- Monthly Roundup #3: February 2023
- Housing and Transit Roundup #3
- Covid 2/2/23: The Emergency Ends On 5/11
- Simulacra Levels Summary
- Covid 1/26/23: Case Count Crash
- Movie Review: Megan
- Covid 1/19/23: Flipped Numbers
- On AI and Interest Rates
- On Cooking With Gas
- Covid 1/12/23: Unexplained Spike in Deaths
- Escape Velocity from Bullshit Jobs
- How to Bounded Distrust
- Childhood Roundup #1
- Covid 1/5/23: Various XBB Takes
- Monthly Roundup #2
2022 136
- The Twitter Files: Covid Edition
- Covid 12/29/22: Next Up is XBB.1.5
- Housing and Transit Thoughts and Roundup #2
- Looking Back on Posts From 2022
- Covid 12/22/22: Reevaluating Past Options
- China Covid #4
- Marvel Snap Review: Phase 2
- Next Level Seinfeld
- Covid 12/15/22: China's Wave Begins
- Key Mostly Outward-Facing Facts From the Story of VaccinateCA
- Monthly General Roundup #1
- Covid 12/8/22: Another Winter Wave
- Jailbreaking ChatGPT on Release Day
- Covid 12/1/22: China Protests
- On the Diplomacy AI
- Covid 11/24/22: Thanks for Good Health
- Simple Improvement to College Football Overtime Rules
- Covid 11/17/22: Slow Recovery
- Sadly, FTX
- Weekly Roundup #5
- Covid 11/10/22: Into the Background
- What's The Deal With Elon Musk and Twitter?
- Weekly Roundup #4
- Covid 11/3/22: Asking Forgiveness
- Housing and Transit Thoughts and Roundup #1
- Marvel Snap Review: Phase 1
- Weekly Roundup #3
- Covid 10/27/22: Another Origin Story
- Post on Colonscopy RCT Being Held For Revisions
- Weekly Roundup #2
- Covid 10/20/22: Wait, We Did WHAT?
- Balsa FAQ
- Weekly Non-Covid News #1 (10/13/22)
- Covid 10/13/22: Just the Facts
- Why Balsa Research is Worthwhile
- Covid 10/6/22: Overreactions Aplenty
- Covid 9/29/22: The Jones Act Waiver
- Announcing Balsa Research
- Covid 9/22/22: The Joe Biden Sings
- Ukraine Post #12
- Twitter Polls: Evidence is Evidence
- Covid 9/15/22: Permanent Normal
- Covid 9/8/22: Booster Boosting
- Covid 9/1/22: Meet the New Booster
- Grand Theft Education
- Covid 8/25/22: What We Owe
- On Car Seats as Contraception
- Covid 8/18/22: CDC Admits Mistakes
- Spoiler-Free Review: Across the Obelisk
- And The Revenues Are So Small
- Covid 8/11/22: The End Is Never The End
- Covid 8/4/22: Rebound
- Covid 7/28/22: Ruining It For Everyone
- Monkeypox Post #2
- Covid 7/21/22: Featuring ASPR
- YouTubeTV and Spoilers
- Covid 7/14/22: BA.2.75 Plus Tax
- Criticism of EA Criticism Contest
- Covid 7/7/22: Paxlovid at the Pharmacy
- When Giving People Money Doesn't Help
- Covid 6/30/22: Vaccine Update Update
- Game Review: This Merchant Life
- Air Conditioner Repair
- Covid 6/23/22: Under Five Alive
- Announcing the DWATV Discord
- Covid 6/16/22: Do Not Hand It To Them
- Against Active Shooter Drills
- On AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities
- Covid 6/9/22: Nice
- Transcript of a Twitter Discussion on EA from June 2022
- Book Review: Talent
- Covid 6/2/2022: Declining to Respond
- Covid 5/26/22: I Guess I Should Respond To This Week's Long Covid Study
- Mandatory Post About Monkeypox
- Formula for a Shortage
- Covid 5/19/22: The Law of Five
- Formula For Dying Babies
- China Covid #3
- Covid 5/12/22: Other Priorities
- Repeal the Foreign Dredge Act of 1906
- Covid 5/5/22: A Lack of Care
- Covid 4/28/22: Take My Paxlovid, Please
- Ukraine Post #11: Longer Term Predictions
- China Covid #2
- Covid 4/21/22: Variants Working Overtime
- Judge Overturns Transportation Mask Mandate
- Covid 4/14/22: China Stays the Course
- Ukraine Post #10: Next Phase
- China Covid Update #1
- Covid 4/7/22: Opening Day
- Ukraine Post #9: Again
- Ukraine Post #8: Risk of Nuclear War
- Covid 3/31/22: More of the Same
- They Don't Know About Second Booster
- Ukraine Post #7: Prediction Market Update
- Ukraine #6: More Data and Peace Terms
- Covid 3/24: Respite
- Ukraine #5: Bits of Information
- Covid 3/17/22: The Rise of BA.2
- Ukraine #4: Prediction Market Movement Modeling
- Omicron Post #16: China In Danger
- Ukraine #3: Decision Theory, Madman Theory and the Mafioso Nature
- Covid 3/10/22: We Have a Plan
- Ukraine Post #2: Options
- How To Best Use Twitter
- Covid 3/3/22: Move Along
- Ukraine Post #1: Prediction Markets
- Less Lightning Links at Length #1
- Covid 2/24/22: The Next War
- Convoy Crackdown
- Encourage More To Instill Confidence?
- Covid 2/17/22: Coasting Downwards
- Convoy Continued
- Paper Is True
- Rock is Strong
- Covid 2/10: Happy Birthday
- The Long Long Covid Post
- Convoy
- Covid 2/3/22: Loosening Bounds
- The Urgency of Normal: An Exercise in Bounded Distrust
- On Bounded Distrust
- 2022 ACX Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold
- Covid 1/27/22: Let My People Go
- Evaluating 2021 ACX Predictions
- Long-Term Charities: Apply For SFF Funding
- Covid 1/20/22: Peak Omicron
- Land Ho!
- Omicron Post #15
- Polymarket Covid-19 1/17/2022
- School Daze
- Covid 1/13/22: Endgame
- Omicron Post #14
- The IHME Report
- Omicron Post #13: Outlook
- Covid 1/6/22: The Blip
- Omicron Post #12
2021 91
- Omicron Post #11
- Covid 12/30: Infinity War
- CDC Changes Isolation Guidelines
- Omicron Post #10
- Omicron: My Current Model
- Omicron Post #9
- Covid 12/22: Get Set, Also Go
- Testing, Testing, Hopefully
- What's Up With the CDC Nowcast?
- Omicron Post #8
- Law of No Evidence
- Covid 12/16: On Your Marks
- Omicron Post #7
- Zvi's Thoughts on the Survival and Flourishing Fund (SFF)
- Omicron Post #6
- Covid 12/9: Counting Down the Days
- Omicron Post #5
- Omicron Post #4
- Covid 12/2: But Aside From That
- Omicron Post #3
- Covid Prediction Markets at Polymarket
- FDA Votes on Molnupiravir
- Omicron Variant Post #2
- Omicron Variant Post #1: We're F***ed, It's Never Over
- Covid 11/25: Another Thanksgiving
- Paxlovid Remains Illegal: 11/24 Update
- Covid 11/18: Paxlovid Remains Illegal
- Attempted Gears Analysis of AGI Intervention Discussion With Eliezer
- Covid 11/11: Winter and Effective Treatments Are Coming
- Substack Ho?
- Covid 11/4: The After Times
- Paths Forward: Scaling the Sharing of Information and Solutions
- Covid 10/28: An Unexpected Victory
- An Unexpected Victory: Container Stacking at the Port of Long Beach
- Covid 10/21: Rogan vs. Gupta
- Covid 10/14: Less Long Covid
- Covid 10/7: Steady as She Goes
- Covid 9/30: People Respond to Incentives
- Covid 9/23: There Is a War
- Covid 9/17: Done Biden His Time
- Covid 9/9: Passing the Peak
- Covid 9/2: Long Covid Analysis
- Guide to Warwick, New York
- Covid 8/26: Full Vaccine Approval
- Covid 8/19: Cracking the Booster
- Covid 8/12: The Worst Is Over
- Covid 8/5: Much Ado About Nothing
- Covid 7/29: You Play to Win the Game
- Covid 7/22: Error Correction
- Covid 7/15: Rates of Change
- Covid 7/8: Delta Takes Over
- Spoiler-Free Review: Roguebook
- Covid 7/1: Don't Panic
- Covid 6/24: The Spanish Prisoner
- Covid 6/17: One Last Scare
- The Apprentice Thread
- Covid 6/10: Somebody Else's Problem
- Covid 6/3: No News is Good News
- Covid 5/27: The Final Countdown
- Covid 5/20: The Great Unmasking
- New Magic Post: The Pro Tour Was Magic
- Covid 5/13: Moving On
- Covid 5/6: Vaccine Patent Suspension
- Covid 4/29: Vaccination Slowdown
- Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold
- Spoiler-Free Reviews: Monster Slayers, Dream Quest and Loop Hero
- Covid 4/22: Crisis in India
- Covid 4/15: Are We Seriously Doing This Again
- Covid 4/9: Another Vaccine Passport Objection
- Covid 4/1: Vaccine Passports
- Covid 3/25: Own Goals
- Covid 3/18: An Expected Quantity of Blood Clots
- Return to New York City
- Covid 3/12: New CDC Guidelines Available
- Covid 3/4: Declare Victory and Leave Home
- Covid 2/25: Holding Pattern
- Judging Our April 2020 Covid-19 Predictions
- Covid 2/18: Vaccines Still Work
- Covid: CDC Issues New Guidance on Opening Schools
- Covid 2/11: As Expected
- Still Not in Charge
- Why I Am Not in Charge
- Covid 2/4: Safe and Effective Vaccines Aplenty
- Covid 1/28: Muddling Through
- Covid: Bill Gates and Vaccine Production
- Covid 1/21: Turning the Corner
- Everything Okay
- Covid: The Question of Immunity From Infection
- Covid 1/14: To Launch a Thousand Shipments
- Covid 1/7: The Fire of a Thousand Suns
- Fourth Wave Covid Toy Modeling
2020 95
- Covid 12/31: Meet the New Year
- Covid 12/24: We're F***ed, It's Over
- On Robin Hanson's "Social Proof, but of What?"
- Covid 12/17: The First Dose
- Motive Ambiguity
- Covid 12/10: Vaccine Approval Day in America
- Covid 12/3: Land of Confusion
- Covid 11/26: Thanksgiving
- Covid 11/19: Don't Do Stupid Things
- 2020 Election: Prediction Markets versus Polling/Modeling Assessment and Postmortem
- Covid 11/12: The Winds of Winter
- Covid 11/5: Don't Mention the War
- Covid Covid Covid Covid Covid 10/29: All We Ever Talk About
- Spoiler-Free Review and then Semi-Walkthrough: Star Traders: Frontiers
- Covid 10/22: Europe in Crisis
- The Uncertainty of Death and Taxes
- PredictIt: Presidential Market is Increasingly Wrong
- Covid 10/15: Playtime is Over
- Covid 10/8: October Surprise
- Covid 10/1: The Long Haul
- Covid 9/24: Until Morale Improves
- Spoiler-Free Review: The Stanley Parable
- Covid 9/17: It's Worse
- Spoiler-Free Review: Orwell
- Free Money at PredictIt: 2020 General Election
- Covid 9/10: Vitamin D
- The Four Children of the Seder as the Simulacra Levels
- Covid 9/3: Meet the New CDC
- Spoiler-Free Review: Death and Taxes
- Covid 8/27: The Fall of the CDC
- I Started a Sports and Gambling Substack
- Covid 8/20: A Little Progress
- Wordpress Destroys Editing Process, Seeking Alternatives
- Covid 8/13: Same As It Ever Was
- Covid 8/6: The Case of the Missing Data
- Unifying the Simulacra Definitions
- Covid 7/30: Whack a Mole
- New Paper on Herd Immunity Thresholds
- Covid 7/23: The Second Summit
- Fresh Bread
- Covid 7/16: Becoming the Mask
- Covid-19: Analysis of Mortality Data
- Covid 7/9: Lies, Damn Lies and Death Rates
- Spoiler-Free Review: Horizon Zero Dawn
- Spoiler-Free Review: Witcher 3: Wild Hunt (plus a Spoilerific section)
- Covid 7/2: It Could Be Worse
- Covid 6/25: The Dam Breaks
- Linkpost: M21 Review: We Have Normality
- New York Times, Please Do Not Threaten The Safety of Scott Alexander By Revealing His True Name
- Covid-19 6/18: The Virus Goes South
- Simulacra Levels and their Interactions
- Covid-19 6/11: Bracing For a Second Wave
- Covid-19 6/4: The Eye of the Storm
- Spoiler-Free Review: CrossCells
- Spoiler-Free Review: Monster Train
- Covid-19: My Current Model
- Covid-19 5/29: Dumb Reopening
- Spoiler-Free Review: Assassin's Creed Odyssey
- Plague in Assassin's Creed Odyssey
- Mazes Sequence Summary
- Do It Now
- Covid 5/14: Limbo Under
- Legends of Runeterra: Early Review
- Covid-19: Comorbidity
- Covid-19 5/7: Fighting Limbo
- Covid-19: New York's Antibody Tests 2
- On Negative Feedback and Simulacra
- SlateStarCodex 2020 Predictions: Buy, Sell, Hold
- Covid-19 4/30: Stuck in Limbo
- On "COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons"
- On New York's Antibody Tests
- My Covid-19 Thinking: 4/23 pre-Cuomo Data
- My Covid-19 Thinking: 4/17
- Evaluating Predictions in Hindsight
- Linkpost: A Comprehensive Review of Ikoria, Lair of Behemoths
- Seemingly Popular Covid-19 Model is Obvious Nonsense
- The One Mistake Rule
- On R0
- Taking Initial Viral Load Seriously
- Let My People Stay Home
- What is a School?
- An Open Letter To The Congregation Regarding The Upcoming Holiday
- Coronavirus is Here
- Mazes Sequence Roundup: Final Thoughts and Paths Forward
- Protecting Large Projects Against Mazedom
- Create a Full Alternative Stack
- Potential Ways to Fight Mazes
- Ten Causes of Mazedom
- How Doomed are Large Organizations?
- The Road to Mazedom
- How Escape From Immoral Mazes
- How to Identify an Immoral Maze
- What is Success in an Immoral Maze?
- Stripping Away the Protections
- What is Life in an Immoral Maze?
2019 46
- Does Big Business Hate Your Family?
- Imperfect Competition
- Perfect Competition
- Moloch Hasn't Won
- Meditation Retreat: Immoral Mazes Sequence Introduction
- Vantress Gargoyle Dimir
- Linkpost: Searching Along the Trail of Crumbs
- Linkpost: My Fires Part 8 (Deck Guide to Jeskai Cavaliers) posted at CoolStuffInc.com
- Three on Two: Temur Walkers, Elk Blade, Goblin Blade and Dino Blade
- Ban the London Mulligan
- Artifact: What Went Wrong?
- Free Money at PredictIt?
- Timer Toxicities
- Free-to-Play Games: Three Key Trade-Offs
- Who To Root For: 2019 College Football Edition
- Dual Wielding
- Mistake Versus Conflict Theory of Against Billionaire Philanthropy
- Everybody Knows
- Magic Arena Bot Drafting
- Press Your Luck
- Some Ways Coordination is Hard
- Moral Mazes and Short Termism
- Quotes from Moral Mazes
- Laws of John Wick
- More Notes on Simple Rules
- Simple Rules of Law
- Tales from the Highway
- Tales From the American Medical System
- Dishonest Update Reporting
- Asymmetric Justice
- Counterfactuals about Social Media
- Reflections on Duo Standard
- Reflections on the Mythic Invitational
- Deck Guide: Biomancer's Familiar
- Privacy
- Speculations on Duo Standard
- New York Restaurants I Love: Pizza
- On The London Mulligan
- Blackmail
- New York Restaurants I Love: Breakfast
- Minimize Use of Standard Internet Food Delivery
- Book Trilogy Review: Remembrance of Earth's Past (The Three Body Problem)
- Game Analysis Index
- Less Competition, More Meritocracy?
- Disadvantages of Card Rebalancing
- Advantages of Card Rebalancing
2018 47
- Card Rebalancing, Card Oversupply and Economic Considerations in Digital Card Games
- Card Balance and Artifact
- Card Collection and Ownership
- Artifact Embraces Card Balance Changes
- Fifteen Things I Learned From Watching a Game of Secret Hitler
- Review: Slay the Spire
- Prediction Markets Are About Being Right
- Review: Artifact
- Preschool: Much Less Than You Wanted To Know
- Deck Guide: Burning Drakes
- Octopath Traveler: Spoiler-Free Review
- Linkpost: Arena's New Opening Hand Rule Has Huge Implications For How We Play the Game
- The Art of the Overbet
- The Kelly Criterion
- Additional arguments for NIMBY
- Eternal: The Exit Interview
- Apply for Emergent Ventures
- On Robin Hanson's Board Game
- You Play to Win the Game
- Unknown Knowns
- Chris Pikula Belongs in the Magic Hall of Fame
- Subsidizing Prediction Markets
- Tidying One's Room
- Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?
- Who Wants The Job?
- Simplicio and Sophisticus
- Why Destructive Value Capture?
- Front Row Center
- Simplified Poker Conclusions
- Simplified Poker Strategy
- Simplified Poker
- The Third Circle
- The Second Circle
- The First Circle
- The Sheepskin Effect
- The Case Against Education: Splitting the Education Premium Pie and Considering IQ
- Inefficient Doesn't Mean Indifferent
- The Case Against Education: Foundations
- The Case Against Education
- Nice Things
- The Eternal Grind
- AI Alignment Prize: Round 2 due March 31, 2018
- Sacred Cash
- Categories of Sacredness
- Eternal, and Hearthstone Economy versus Magic Economy
- Understanding-1-2-3
- Zvi Will Be In San Francisco January 15-21
2017 65
- Book Review: The Elephant in the Brain
- The Story CFAR
- I Vouch For MIRI
- Pascal's Muggle Pays
- Book Review: The Complacent Class
- Book Review: The Captured Economy
- More Dakka
- You Have the Right to Think
- The Darwin Results
- The Darwin Pregame
- The Darwin Game
- Zeroing Out
- Leaders of Men
- Seek Fair Expectations of Others' Models
- Welcome to the World
- Beginners' Meditation
- The Fish-Head Monk
- Sabbath Commentary
- Bring Back the Sabbath
- Slack
- Out to Get You
- Against Facebook: The Stalking
- Best of Don't Worry About the Vase
- Expanding Premium Mediocrity
- Exploring Premium Mediocrity
- Play in Hard Mode
- Play in Easy Mode
- Altruism is Incomplete
- Paths Forward on Berkeley Culture Discussion
- Seattle Minimum Wage Study (Part 3): Tell Me Why I'm Wrong, Please!
- What Is Rationalist Berkeley's Community Culture?
- Choices Are Really Bad
- Something Was Wrong
- Complexity Is Bad
- Write Down Your Process
- Choices are Bad
- Change Is Bad
- On the Seattle Minimum Wage Study (part 2)
- On the Seattle Minimum Wage Study (part 1)
- Just Saying What You Mean is Impossible
- On Dragon Army
- Persona 5: Spoiler-Free Review
- Book Review: Weapons of Math Destruction
- How to Destroy Civilization
- Help Us Find Your Blog (and others)
- Against Facebook: Comparison to Alternatives and Call to Action
- Against Facebook
- United We Blame
- Escalator Action
- You're Good Enough, You're Smart Enough, and People Would Like You
- Why Rationality?
- Responses to Tyler Cowen on Rationality
- Avoiding Emotional Dominance Spirals
- If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.
- Meditations on Mexico City
- Book Review: Eisenhorn Trilogy
- On Automoderation
- Restaurant Guide 2: Pizza
- Trio Walks, Duo Talks
- Restaurant Guide 1: Restaurants should not look like (most) restaurants
- Short Termism
- Metrics in Everything: "Human Lives"
- The AI Paper with The Best Title Ever
- Book Review: How Asia Works by Joe Studwell
- Things that want to be posts
2015 17
- On Cutting Wages
- Wizards Implements Ochlocracy
- The Thing and the Symbolic Representation of The Thing
- Self Service Roundup
- What If It Rains?
- Full Service
- NFL is a perfect example of complexity creep
- Two Words That Offer Final Ultimate Proof That Medical System Is Evil
- TPP is about as good as it is supposed to be
- The Twelve Virtues of Rationality
- In a world... of venture capital
- Trolley Problems: Conveniently Inconvenient Worlds Considered
- Team New York City
- What is stupid?
- Private Firm vs. Public Firm Earnings
- Carpe Diem: The Problem of Scarcity and Abundance
- Carpe Diem, the Optimization Game: Level 1