The Curious Engineer

Overcoming Bias

2007–2008

1,480 posts

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2008 791

December 2008

  1. A New Day
  2. Against Interesting Details
  3. Dunbar’s Function
  4. Amputation of Destiny
  5. The Meta-Human Condition
  6. “It is Simply No Longer Possible to Believe”
  7. Friendship is Relative
  8. Can’t Unbirth a Child
  9. Nonsentient Bloggers
  10. Nonsentient Optimizers
  11. Nonperson Predicates
  12. Alien Bad Guy Bias
  13. Devil’s Offers
  14. Harmful Options
  15. The Longshot Bias
  16. Imaginary Positions
  17. Coherent Futures
  18. Rationality Quotes 20
  19. No Overconfidence?
  20. Show-Off Bias
  21. Living By Your Own Strength
  22. Sensual Experience
  23. Presuming Bets are Bad
  24. ‘Futarchy’ is NYT Buzzword of ’08
  25. Experts Are For Certainty
  26. Complex Novelty
  27. High Challenge
  28. Weak Social Theories
  29. Christmas Signaling
  30. Prolegomena to a Theory of Fun
  31. The Right Thing
  32. Who Cheers The Referee?
  33. Visualizing Eutopia
  34. I’ll Think of a Reason Later
  35. Tyler on Cryonics
  36. Not Taking Over the World
  37. Entrepreneurs Are Not Overconfident
  38. Distrusting Drama
  39. For The People Who Are Still Alive
  40. Trade With The Future
  41. BHTV: de Grey and Yudkowsky
  42. Hated Because It Might Work
  43. Cryonics Is Cool
  44. You Only Live Twice
  45. We Agree: Get Froze
  46. What I Think, If Not Why
  47. What Core Argument?
  48. The linear-scaling error
  49. The Mechanics of Disagreement
  50. Two Visions Of Heritage
  51. Bay Area Meetup Wed 12/10 @8pm
  52. Are AIs Homo Economicus?
  53. Disjunctions, Antipredictions, Etc.
  54. The Bad Guy Bias
  55. True Sources of Disagreement
  56. US TV Censorship
  57. Wrapping Up
  58. Artificial Mysterious Intelligence
  59. False false dichotomies
  60. Shared AI Wins
  61. Is That Your True Rejection?
  62. Friendly Projects vs. Products
  63. Sustained Strong Recursion
  64. Evolved Desires
  65. Gas Arbitrage
  66. Drexler Blogs!
  67. Beware Hockey Stick Plans
  68. Underconstrained Abstractions
  69. Rationality of voting etc.
  70. Permitted Possibilities, & Locality
  71. The Hypocrisy-Charge Bias
  72. Test Near, Apply Far
  73. Hard Takeoff
  74. Voting Kills
  75. Whither Manufacturing?
  76. Recursive Self-Improvement
  77. Open Thread
  78. I Heart CYC
  79. Disappointment in the Future
  80. Stuck In Throat

November 2008

  1. Singletons Rule OK
  2. Total Tech Wars
  3. Chaotic Inversion
  4. Luck Pessimism
  5. Thanksgiving Prayer
  6. Dreams of Autarky
  7. Modern Depressions
  8. Total Nano Domination
  9. Beliefs Require Reasons, or: Is the Pope Catholic? Should he be?
  10. Engelbart: Insufficiently Recursive
  11. Abstract/Distant Future Bias
  12. The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Ad Hominem
  13. Physicists Held To Lower Standard
  14. Thinking Helps
  15. …Recursion, Magic
  16. When Life Is Cheap, Death Is Cheap
  17. Polisci Stats Biased
  18. Cascades, Cycles, Insight…
  19. “Evicting” brain emulations
  20. Are you dreaming?
  21. Surprised by Brains
  22. Billion Dollar Bots
  23. Brain Emulation and Hard Takeoff
  24. Emulations Go Foom
  25. Life’s Story Continues
  26. Observing Optimization
  27. AI Go Foom
  28. Whence Your Abstractions?
  29. Abstraction, Not Analogy
  30. The First World Takeover
  31. Setting The Stage
  32. Cheap Wine Tastes Fine
  33. Animal experimentation: morally acceptable, or just the way things always have been?
  34. The Weak Inside View
  35. Loud Subtext
  36. Convenient Overconfidence
  37. Failure By Affective Analogy
  38. Failure By Analogy
  39. Whither OB?
  40. All Are Skill Unaware
  41. Logical or Connectionist AI?
  42. Friendliness Factors
  43. Boston-area Meetup: 11/18/08 9pm MIT/Cambridge
  44. Positive vs. Optimal
  45. Friendly Teams
  46. The Nature of Logic
  47. Diamond Palace Survive?
  48. Selling Nonapples
  49. Engelbart As UberTool?
  50. The Weighted Majority Algorithm
  51. Fund UberTool?
  52. Worse Than Random
  53. Conformity Shows Loyalty
  54. Lawful Uncertainty
  55. What Belief Conformity?
  56. Ask OB: Leaving the Fold
  57. Depressed Not More Accurate
  58. Lawful Creativity
  59. Visionary News
  60. Recognizing Intelligence
  61. Equal Cheats
  62. Back Up and Ask Whether, Not Why
  63. Beware “I Believe”
  64. Hanging Out My Speaker’s Shingle
  65. Disagreement Debate Status?
  66. Beware the Prescient
  67. Today’s Inspirational Tale
  68. The Evil Pleasure
  69. Complexity and Intelligence
  70. Building Something Smarter
  71. Open Thread
  72. BHTV: Jaron Lanier and Yudkowsky

October 2008

  1. Mundane Magic
  2. FHI Emulation Roadmap Out
  3. Porn vs Romance Novels
  4. Intelligence in Economics
  5. Does Intelligence Float?
  6. Economic Definition of Intelligence?
  7. Anti-Edgy
  8. Efficient Cross-Domain Optimization
  9. Wanting To Want
  10. Measuring Optimization Power
  11. Transparent Characters
  12. Aiming at the Target
  13. Trust Us!
  14. Belief in Intelligence
  15. Expected Creative Surprises
  16. Trust But Don’t Verify
  17. San Jose Meetup, Sat 10/25 @ 7:30pm
  18. Inner Goodness
  19. Obama Donors As News
  20. Which Parts Are “Me”?
  21. If You Snooze, You Lose
  22. Ethics Notes
  23. Howard Stern on Voter Rationalization
  24. Prices or Bindings?
  25. Toilets Aren’t About Not Dying of Disease
  26. Ethical Injunctions
  27. Informed Voters Choose Worse
  28. Ethical Inhibitions
  29. Protected From Myself
  30. Last Post Requests?
  31. Dark Side Epistemology
  32. Preventive Health Care
  33. Traditional Capitalist Values
  34. US Help Red China Revolt?
  35. Entangled Truths, Contagious Lies
  36. Conspiracy’s Uncanny Valley
  37. Ends Don’t Justify Means (Among Humans)
  38. Why Voter Drives
  39. Election Gambling History
  40. Why Does Power Corrupt?
  41. Behold Our Ancestors
  42. Rationality Quotes 19
  43. Grateful For Bad News
  44. The Ritual
  45. Crisis of Faith
  46. The Wire
  47. AIs and Gatekeepers Unite!
  48. Bad Faith Voter Drives
  49. Shut up and do the impossible!
  50. Academics in Clown Suits
  51. Gullibility and Control
  52. Terror Politics Isn’t About Policy
  53. Make an Extraordinary Effort
  54. More Deafening Silence
  55. On Doing the Impossible
  56. Insincere Cheers
  57. My Bayesian Enlightenment
  58. Political Harassment
  59. Beyond the Reach of God
  60. Rationality Quotes 18
  61. Equally Shallow Genders
  62. Open Thread
  63. Political Parties are not about Policy
  64. Use the Try Harder, Luke
  65. No Rose-Colored Dating Glasses
  66. Trying to Try
  67. Intrade and the Dow Drop
  68. Awww, a Zebra

September 2008

  1. The Magnitude of His Own Folly
  2. The Hope Premium
  3. Dangerous Species Warnings
  4. Friedman’s “Prediction vs. Explanation”
  5. Above-Average AI Scientists
  6. Competent Elites
  7. Bank Politics Is Not About Bank Policy
  8. The Level Above Mine
  9. Doable Green
  10. Give it to Me Straight! I Swear I Won’t be Mad!
  11. My Naturalistic Awakening
  12. Pundits As Moles
  13. Fighting a Rearguard Action Against the Truth
  14. White Swans Painted Black
  15. Correcting Biases Once You’ve Identified Them
  16. That Tiny Note of Discord
  17. Noble Lies?
  18. Horrible LHC Inconsistency
  19. Politics isn’t about Policy
  20. How Many LHC Failures Is Too Many?
  21. Ban the Bear
  22. Say It Loud
  23. Bad News Ban Is Very Bad News
  24. Overconfidence is Stylish
  25. The Sheer Folly of Callow Youth
  26. Who To Blame
  27. A Prodigy of Refutation
  28. Money Is Serious
  29. Raised in Technophilia
  30. Deafening Silence
  31. My Best and Worst Mistake
  32. Noble Abstention
  33. My Childhood Death Spiral
  34. Serious Music
  35. Optimization
  36. Beware High Standards
  37. Psychic Powers
  38. Immodest Caplan
  39. Excluding the Supernatural
  40. Intelligent Design Honesty
  41. Rationality Quotes 17
  42. Election Review Articles
  43. Points of Departure
  44. Guiltless Victims
  45. Singularity Summit 2008
  46. ‘Anyone who thinks the Large Hadron Collider will destroy the world is a t**t.’
  47. Is Carbon Lost Cause?
  48. Rationality Quotes 16
  49. Aaronson on Singularity
  50. Rationality Quotes 15
  51. Hating Economists
  52. Rationality Quotes 14
  53. Disagreement is Disrespect
  54. The Truly Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma
  55. Aping Insight
  56. The True Prisoner’s Dilemma
  57. Mirrored Lives
  58. Risk is Physical
  59. Rationality Quotes 12
  60. Open Thread

August 2008

  1. Brief Break
  2. Dreams of Friendliness
  3. Fake Fish
  4. Qualitative Strategies of Friendliness
  5. Cowen-Hanson Bloggingheads Topics?
  6. Moral False Consensus
  7. Harder Choices Matter Less
  8. The Complexity Critique
  9. Against Modal Logics
  10. Top Teachers Ineffective
  11. Dreams of AI Design
  12. Top Docs No Healthier
  13. Three Fallacies of Teleology
  14. Use the Native Architecture
  15. Cowen Disses Futarchy
  16. Magical Categories
  17. Randomised Controlled Trials of Parachutes
  18. Unnatural Categories
  19. Good Medicine in Merry Old England
  20. Mirrors and Paintings
  21. Beauty Bias
  22. Invisible Frameworks
  23. Dark Dreams
  24. No License To Be Human
  25. Are UFOs Aliens?
  26. You Provably Can’t Trust Yourself
  27. Caplan Gums Bullet
  28. Dumb Deplaning
  29. Mundane Dishonesty
  30. The Cartoon Guide to Löb’s Theorem
  31. Bias in Real Life: A Personal Story
  32. When Anthropomorphism Became Stupid
  33. Hot Air Doesn’t Disagree
  34. Manipulators as Mirrors
  35. The Bedrock of Morality: Arbitrary?
  36. Is Fairness Arbitrary?
  37. Self-Indication Solves Time-Asymmetry
  38. Schelling and the Nuclear Taboo
  39. “Arbitrary”
  40. New Best Game Theory
  41. Abstracted Idealized Dynamics
  42. Future Altruism, Not
  43. Moral Error and Moral Disagreement
  44. Doctor, There are Two Kinds of “No Evidence”
  45. Suspiciously Vague LHC Forecasts
  46. Sorting Pebbles Into Correct Heaps
  47. The Problem at the Heart of Pascal’s Wager
  48. Inseparably Right; or, Joy in the Merely Good
  49. Baxter’s Flood
  50. Morality as Fixed Computation
  51. Our Comet Ancestors?
  52. Hiroshima Day
  53. The Robot’s Rebellion
  54. Yudkowsky’s Book
  55. Ignore Prostate Cancer
  56. Contaminated by Optimism
  57. Anthropology Patrons
  58. Anthropomorphic Optimism
  59. Now I’m Scared
  60. Incomplete Analysis
  61. No Logical Positivist I
  62. Bias against some types of foreign wives
  63. Where Does Pascal’s Wager Fail?
  64. About the Future of Humanity Institute
  65. The Comedy of Behaviorism
  66. Variance-Induced Test Bias
  67. A Genius for Destruction
  68. Open Thread

July 2008

  1. Detached Lever Fallacy
  2. OK, Now I’m Worried
  3. Humans in Funny Suits
  4. Touching Vs. Understanding
  5. Intrade’s Conditional Prediction Markets
  6. Interpersonal Morality
  7. The Meaning of Right
  8. Funding Bias
  9. Setting Up Metaethics
  10. Bias Against the Unseen
  11. Changing Your Metaethics
  12. Is Ideology About Status?
  13. Gary Taubes, “Good Calories, Bad Calories”
  14. Does Your Morality Care What You Think?
  15. Refuge Markets
  16. Math is Subjunctively Objective
  17. Can Counterfactuals Be True?
  18. When (Not) To Use Probabilities
  19. Banning Bad News
  20. Fake Norms, or “Truth” vs. Truth
  21. Loving Loyalty
  22. Should We Ban Physics?
  23. Touching the Old
  24. Existential Angst Factory
  25. Corporate Assassins
  26. Could Anything Be Right?
  27. Disaster Bias
  28. The Gift We Give To Tomorrow
  29. World Welfare State
  30. Whither Moral Progress?
  31. Posting May Slow
  32. Bias in Political Conversation
  33. Lawrence Watt-Evans’s Fiction
  34. Fear, God, and State
  35. Probability is Subjectively Objective
  36. Rebelling Within Nature
  37. Ask For Help
  38. Fundamental Doubts
  39. Biases of Elite Education
  40. The Genetic Fallacy
  41. My Kind of Reflection
  42. Helsinki Meetup
  43. Poker Vs Chess
  44. Cloud Seeding Markets
  45. The Fear of Common Knowledge
  46. Where Recursive Justification Hits Bottom
  47. Artificial Volcanoes
  48. CFTC Event Market Comment
  49. Will As Thou Wilt
  50. All Hail Info Theory
  51. BloggingHeads Hanson & Wilkinson
  52. Is Morality Given?
  53. Is Morality Preference?
  54. Rah My Country
  55. Moral Complexities
  56. 2 of 10, not 3 total
  57. Overconfident Investing
  58. The Bedrock of Fairness
  59. Sex, Nerds, and Entitlement
  60. Break It Down
  61. Why Argue Values?
  62. I’d take it
  63. Distraction Overcomes Moral Hypocrisy
  64. Open Thread
  65. Overcoming Our Vs. Others’ Biases
  66. Created Already In Motion

June 2008

  1. Experience Increases Overconfidence
  2. The Moral Void
  3. What Would You Do Without Morality?
  4. Average Your Guesses
  5. The Opposite Sex
  6. The Conversation So Far
  7. Glory vs. Relations
  8. 2-Place and 1-Place Words
  9. Caution Kills When Fighting Malaria
  10. To What Expose Kids?
  11. No Universally Compelling Arguments
  12. The Design Space of Minds-In-General
  13. Should Bad Boys Win?
  14. The Psychological Unity of Humankind
  15. Eliezer’s Meta-Level Determinism
  16. Optimization and the Singularity
  17. Tyler Vid on Disagreement
  18. Are Meta Views Outside Views?
  19. Surface Analogies and Deep Causes
  20. Parsing The Parable
  21. The Outside View’s Domain
  22. Outside View of Singularity
  23. Heading Toward Morality
  24. LA-602 vs. RHIC Review
  25. History of Transition Inequality
  26. Britain Was Too Small
  27. Natural Genocide
  28. What is the probability of the Large Hadron Collider destroying the universe?
  29. Ghosts in the Machine
  30. Gratitude Decay
  31. Loud Bumpers
  32. Grasping Slippery Things
  33. In Bias, Meta is Max
  34. Passing the Recursive Buck
  35. In Innovation, Meta is Max
  36. The Ultimate Source
  37. Possibility and Could-ness
  38. Joe Epstein on Youth
  39. Causality and Moral Responsibility
  40. Anti-Depressants Fail
  41. Quantum Mechanics and Personal Identity
  42. And the Winner is… Many-Worlds!
  43. Quantum Physics Revealed As Non-Mysterious
  44. An Intuitive Explanation of Quantum Mechanics
  45. Prediction Market Based Electoral Map Forecast
  46. TV is Porn
  47. The Quantum Physics Sequence
  48. Never Is A Long Time
  49. Eliezer’s Post Dependencies; Book Notification; Graphic Designer Wanted
  50. Anti-Foreign Bias
  51. Against Devil’s Advocacy
  52. The Future of Oil Prices 3: Nonrenewable Resource Pricing
  53. Meetup in NYC Wed?
  54. How Honest With Kids?
  55. Bloggingheads: Yudkowsky and Horgan
  56. Oil Scapegoats
  57. Timeless Control
  58. How to Add 2% to GDP
  59. Thou Art Physics
  60. Overcoming Disagreement
  61. Living in Many Worlds
  62. Wait For It
  63. Why Quantum?
  64. Against Disclaimers
  65. Timeless Identity
  66. Exploration As Status
  67. Principles of Disagreement
  68. The Rhythm of Disagreement
  69. Open Thread
  70. Singularity Economics

May 2008

  1. A Premature Word on AI
  2. A.I. Old-Timers
  3. Empty Space
  4. Class Project
  5. Einstein’s Superpowers
  6. Intro to Innovation
  7. Timeless Causality
  8. Overconfidence & Paternalism
  9. Timeless Beauty
  10. Lazy Lineup Study
  11. Timeless Physics
  12. 2nd Annual Roberts Podcast
  13. Who Shall We Honor?
  14. Relative Configuration Space
  15. Beware Identity
  16. A Broken Koan
  17. Mach’s Principle: Anti-Epiphenomenal Physics
  18. Lying to Kids
  19. My Childhood Role Model
  20. That Alien Message
  21. Anthropic Breakthrough
  22. Einstein’s Speed
  23. Transcend Or Die
  24. Far Future Disagreement
  25. Faster Than Science
  26. Conference on Global Catastrophic Risks
  27. Biting Evolution Bullets
  28. Changing the Definition of Science
  29. No Safe Defense, Not Even Science
  30. Bounty Slander
  31. Idea Futures In Lumpaland
  32. Do Scientists Already Know This Stuff?
  33. Lobbying for Prediction Markets
  34. Science Isn’t Strict Enough
  35. Lumpaland Parable
  36. When Science Can’t Help
  37. Honest Politics
  38. Science Doesn’t Trust Your Rationality
  39. Sleepy Fools
  40. The Dilemma: Science or Bayes?
  41. The Failures of Eld Science
  42. Condemned to Repeat Finance Past
  43. Many Worlds, One Best Guess
  44. Happy Conservatives
  45. If Many-Worlds Had Come First
  46. Elusive Placebos
  47. Collapse Postulates
  48. Faith in Docs
  49. Quantum Non-Realism
  50. Expelled Beats Sicko
  51. Decoherence is Falsifiable and Testable
  52. Guilt By Association
  53. Decoherence is Simple
  54. Keeping Math Real
  55. Spooky Action at a Distance: The No-Communication Theorem
  56. Walking On Grass, Others
  57. Bell’s Theorem: No EPR “Reality”
  58. Beware Transfusions
  59. Entangled Photons
  60. Beware Supplements
  61. Decoherence as Projection
  62. Open Thread
  63. I’m in Boston
  64. The Born Probabilities

April 2008

  1. Be biased to be happy
  2. Optimism Bias Desired
  3. Decoherent Essences
  4. Self-Copying Factories
  5. Decoherence is Pointless
  6. Charm Beats Accuracy
  7. The Conscious Sorites Paradox
  8. On Being Decoherent
  9. Quantum Orthodoxy
  10. If I Had A Million
  11. Where Experience Confuses Physicists
  12. Blaming The Unlucky
  13. Where Physics Meets Experience
  14. Early Scientists Chose Influence Over Credit
  15. Which Basis Is More Fundamental?
  16. A Model Disagreement
  17. The So-Called Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle
  18. Caplan Pulls Along Ropes
  19. Decoherence
  20. Paternalism Parable
  21. Three Dialogues on Identity
  22. On Philosophers
  23. Zombies: The Movie
  24. Schwitzgebel Thoughts
  25. Identity Isn’t In Specific Atoms
  26. Elevator Myths
  27. No Individual Particles
  28. Is She Just Friendly?
  29. Feynman Paths
  30. Kids, Parents Disagree on Spouses
  31. The Quantum Arena
  32. Classical Configuration Spaces
  33. How To Vs. What To
  34. Can You Prove Two Particles Are Identical?
  35. Naming Beliefs
  36. Where Philosophy Meets Science
  37. Distinct Configurations
  38. Conformity Questions
  39. Conformity Myths
  40. Joint Configurations
  41. Configurations and Amplitude
  42. Prevention Costs
  43. Quantum Explanations
  44. Inhuman Rationality?
  45. Belief in the Implied Invisible
  46. Endearing Sincerity
  47. GAZP vs. GLUT
  48. The Generalized Anti-Zombie Principle
  49. Anxiety about what is true
  50. Ramone on Knowing God
  51. Zombie Responses
  52. Brownlee on Selling Anxiety
  53. Zombies! Zombies?
  54. Reductive Reference
  55. Arbitrary Silliness
  56. Brain Breakthrough! It’s Made of Neurons!
  57. Open Thread
  58. Beware of Brain Images
  59. Heat vs. Motion

March 2008

  1. Against News
  2. Angry Atoms
  3. Hand vs. Fingers
  4. Impotence of Belief in Bias
  5. Initiation Ceremony
  6. Cash Increases Accuracy
  7. To Spread Science, Keep It Secret
  8. Ancient Political Self-Deception
  9. Scarcity
  10. Fantasy and Reality: Substitutes or Complements?
  11. Is Humanism A Religion-Substitute?
  12. Showing That You Care
  13. Amazing Breakthrough Day: April 1st
  14. Religious Cohesion
  15. The Beauty of Settled Science
  16. Where Want Fewer Women?
  17. New York OB Meetup (ad-hoc) on Monday, Mar 24, @6pm
  18. If You Demand Magic, Magic Won’t Help
  19. Biases in Processing Political Information
  20. Bind Yourself to Reality
  21. Boards of Advisors Don’t Advise, Do Board
  22. Joy in Discovery
  23. Joy in the Merely Real
  24. Sincerity Is Overrated
  25. Savanna Poets
  26. Biases and Investing
  27. Morality Is Overrated
  28. Fake Reductionism
  29. They’re Only Tokens
  30. Explaining vs. Explaining Away
  31. Reductionism
  32. A Few Quick Links
  33. Qualitatively Confused
  34. The Kind of Project To Watch
  35. Penguicon & Blook
  36. One Million Visits
  37. Distinguish Info, Analysis, Belief, Action
  38. The Quotation is not the Referent
  39. Neglecting Conceptual Research
  40. Probability is in the Mind
  41. Limits to Physics Insight
  42. Mind Projection Fallacy
  43. Uninformative Experience
  44. Righting a Wrong Question
  45. Wrong Questions
  46. Dissolving the Question
  47. Bias And Power
  48. Gary Gygax Annihilated at 69
  49. Wilkinson on Paternalism
  50. 37 Ways That Words Can Be Wrong
  51. Overvaluing Ideas
  52. Reject Random Beliefs
  53. Variable Question Fallacies
  54. Human Capital “Puzzle” Explained?
  55. Words as Mental Paintbrush Handles
  56. Open Thread
  57. Framing problems as separate from people
  58. Conditional Independence, and Naive Bayes

February 2008

  1. Searching for Bayes-Structure
  2. Perpetual Motion Beliefs
  3. Ignoring Advice
  4. The Second Law of Thermodynamics, and Engines of Cognition
  5. Leave a Line of Retreat
  6. More Referee Bias
  7. Superexponential Conceptspace, and Simple Words
  8. My Favorite Liar
  9. Mutual Information, and Density in Thingspace
  10. If Self-Fulfilling Optimism is Wrong, I Don’t Wanna be Right
  11. Entropy, and Short Codes
  12. More Moral Wiggle Room
  13. Where to Draw the Boundary?
  14. The Hawthorne Effect
  15. Arguing “By Definition”
  16. Against Polish
  17. Colorful Character Again
  18. Sneaking in Connotations
  19. Nephew Versus Nepal Charity
  20. Categorizing Has Consequences
  21. The Public Intellectual Plunge
  22. Fallacies of Compression
  23. With blame comes hope
  24. Relative vs. Absolute Rationality
  25. Replace the Symbol with the Substance
  26. Talking Versus Trading
  27. Taboo Your Words
  28. Why “Just Believe”?
  29. Classic Sichuan in Millbrae, Thu Feb 21, 7pm
  30. Empty Labels
  31. Is Love Something More?
  32. The Argument from Common Usage
  33. Pod People Paternalism
  34. Feel the Meaning
  35. Dinos on the Moon
  36. Disputing Definitions
  37. What is Worth Study?
  38. How An Algorithm Feels From Inside
  39. Nanotech Views Value Driven
  40. Neural Categories
  41. Believing Too Little
  42. Disguised Queries
  43. Eternal Medicine
  44. The Cluster Structure of Thingspace
  45. Typicality and Asymmetrical Similarity
  46. What Wisdom Silence?
  47. Similarity Clusters
  48. Buy Now Or Forever Hold Your Peace
  49. Extensions and Intensions
  50. Let’s Do Like Them
  51. Words as Hidden Inferences
  52. Predictocracy vs. Futarchy
  53. The Parable of Hemlock
  54. Merger Decision Markets
  55. Open Thread
  56. The Parable of the Dagger
  57. Futarchy vs. Predictocracy

January 2008

  1. OB Meetup: Millbrae, Thu 21 Feb, 7pm
  2. Newcomb’s Problem and Regret of Rationality
  3. Dark Police
  4. Contingent Truth Value
  5. Deliberative Prediction Markets — A Reply
  6. Something to Protect
  7. Deliberation in Prediction Markets
  8. Trust in Bayes
  9. Predictocracy — A Preliminary Response
  10. The “Intuitions” Behind “Utilitarianism”
  11. Voters Want Simplicity
  12. Predictocracy
  13. Rationality Quotes 9
  14. Knowing your argumentative limitations, OR “one [rationalist’s] modus ponens is another’s modus tollens.”
  15. Problems With Prizes
  16. Rationality Quotes 8
  17. Acceptable Casualties
  18. Rationality Quotes 7
  19. CFO Overconfidence
  20. Rationality Quotes 6
  21. Rationality Quotes 5
  22. Connections Versus Insight
  23. Circular Altruism
  24. For Discount Rates
  25. Against Discount Rates
  26. Allais Malaise
  27. Mandatory Sensitivity Training Fails
  28. Rationality Quotes 4
  29. Zut Allais!
  30. The Allais Paradox
  31. Nesse on Academia
  32. Antidepressant Publication Bias
  33. Rationality Quotes 2
  34. Just Enough Expertise?
  35. Rationality Quotes 1
  36. Trust in Math
  37. Economist As Scrooge
  38. Beautiful Probability
  39. Leading bias researcher turns out to be… biased, renounces result
  40. Is Reality Ugly?
  41. Don’t Choose a President the Way You’d Choose an Assistant Regional Manager
  42. Expecting Beauty
  43. How To Fix Wage Bias
  44. Beautiful Math
  45. 0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities
  46. Once More, With Feeling
  47. Political Inequality
  48. Infinite Certainty
  49. More Presidential Decision Markets!
  50. Experiencing The Endowment Effect
  51. Absolute Authority
  52. Social Scientists Know Lots
  53. The Fallacy of Gray
  54. Art, Trust, and Betrayal
  55. Nuked US Futures
  56. But There’s Still A Chance, Right?
  57. A Failed Just-So Story
  58. Presidential Decision Markets
  59. Open Thread
  60. Rational vs. Scientific Ev-Psych
  61. Yes, it can be rational to vote in presidential elections
  62. Debugging Comments
  63. Stop Voting For Nincompoops
  64. I Dare You Bunzl
  65. The American System and Misleading Labels
  66. Some structural biases of the political system
  67. The ordering of authors’ names in academic publications
  68. The Two-Party Swindle
  69. Posting on Politics

2007 689

December 2007

  1. Honest Teen Paternalism
  2. My Strange Beliefs
  3. Cultish Countercultishness
  4. To Lead, You Must Stand Up
  5. Econ of Longer Lives
  6. Lonely Dissent
  7. On Expressing Your Concerns
  8. Too Much Hope
  9. Asch’s Conformity Experiment
  10. The Amazing Virgin Pregnancy
  11. Procrastination
  12. Zen and the Art of Rationality
  13. Effortless Technique
  14. False Laughter
  15. The Greatest Gift, The Best Exercise
  16. Two Cult Koans
  17. Interior Economics
  18. Politics and Awful Art
  19. Judgment Can Add Accuracy
  20. The Litany Against Gurus
  21. Guardians of Ayn Rand
  22. Gender Tax
  23. Guardians of the Gene Pool
  24. Battle of the election forecasters
  25. Guardians of the Truth
  26. Hug the Query
  27. Economist Judgment
  28. Argument Screens Off Authority
  29. Give juries video recordings of testimony
  30. Reversed Stupidity Is Not Intelligence
  31. Tax The Tall
  32. Every Cause Wants To Be A Cult
  33. Does Healthcare Do Any Good At All?
  34. Misc Meta
  35. It Is Good To Exist
  36. The Robbers Cave Experiment
  37. Welcome to Overcoming Bias!
  38. When None Dare Urge Restraint
  39. Modules, signals, and guilt
  40. Evaporative Cooling of Group Beliefs
  41. Doctor Hypocrisy
  42. Fake Utility Functions
  43. Open Thread
  44. Fake Fake Utility Functions
  45. Heroic Job Bias
  46. Uncritical Supercriticality
  47. Resist the Happy Death Spiral
  48. Baby Selling
  49. Affective Death Spirals
  50. Mere Messiahs
  51. Superhero Bias

November 2007

  1. Leader Gender Bias
  2. The Halo Effect
  3. Unbounded Scales, Huge Jury Awards, & Futurism
  4. What Insight Literature?
  5. Evaluability (And Cheap Holiday Shopping)
  6. The Affect Heuristic
  7. Academia Clumps
  8. Purpose and Pragmatism
  9. Lost Purposes
  10. InTrade fee structure discourages selling the tails?
  11. The Hidden Complexity of Wishes
  12. Aliens Among Us
  13. Leaky Generalizations
  14. Good InTrade bets?
  15. Not for the Sake of Happiness (Alone)
  16. Interpreting the Fed
  17. Merry Hallowthankmas Eve
  18. Truly Part Of You
  19. Overcoming Bias After One Year
  20. Artificial Addition
  21. Publication Bias and the Death Penalty
  22. Development Futures
  23. Conjuring An Evolution To Serve You
  24. US South Had 42% Chance
  25. Towards a typology of bias
  26. The Simple Math of Everything
  27. My Guatemala Interviews
  28. No Evolutions for Corporations or Nanodevices
  29. Nature Endorses Human Extinction
  30. Evolving to Extinction
  31. Don’t Do Something
  32. Terminal Values and Instrumental Values
  33. Treatment Futures
  34. Thou Art Godshatter
  35. Implicit Conditionals
  36. Protein Reinforcement and DNA Consequentialism
  37. Polarized USA
  38. Evolutionary Psychology
  39. Adaptation-Executers, not Fitness-Maximizers
  40. Overcoming bias at work for engineers
  41. Fake Optimization Criteria
  42. Dawes on Therapy
  43. Fake Morality
  44. Seat Belts Work
  45. Fake Selfishness
  46. Inconsistent Paternalism
  47. The Tragedy of Group Selectionism
  48. Are The Self-Righteous Righteous?
  49. Beware of Stephen J. Gould
  50. College Admission Futures
  51. Natural Selection’s Speed Limit and Complexity Bound
  52. A test for political prediction markets
  53. Passionately Wrong
  54. Evolutions Are Stupid (But Work Anyway)
  55. Serious Unconventional De Grey
  56. The Wonder of Evolution
  57. Hospice Beats Hospital
  58. An Alien God
  59. Open Thread
  60. How Much Defer To Experts?
  61. Fake Justification
  62. A Terrifying Halloween Costume

October 2007

  1. What Wisdom Tradition?
  2. Random vs. Certain Death
  3. Who Told You Moral Questions Would be Easy?
  4. A Case Study of Motivated Continuation
  5. Double Or Nothing Lawsuits, Ten Years On
  6. Torture vs. Dust Specks
  7. College Choice Futures
  8. Motivated Stopping and Motivated Continuation
  9. Bay Area Bayesians Unite!
  10. Dan Kahneman Puzzles With Us
  11. Why Are Individual IQ Differences OK?
  12. If Not Data, What?
  13. No One Knows What Science Doesn’t Know
  14. Dennett’s Special Pleading
  15. Double Illusion of Transparency
  16. Why I’m Betting on the Red Sox
  17. InTrade Nominee Advice
  18. Explainers Shoot High. Aim Low!
  19. Distrust Effect Names
  20. The fallacy of the one-sided bet (for example, risk, God, torture, and lottery tickets)
  21. Expecting Short Inferential Distances
  22. Marriage Futures
  23. Self-Anchoring
  24. How Close Life’s Birth?
  25. Illusion of Transparency: Why No One Understands You
  26. A Valid Concern
  27. Pascal’s Mugging: Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities
  28. Hanson Joins Cult
  29. Congratulations to Paris Hilton
  30. Cut US Military in Half
  31. “Can’t Say No” Spending
  32. Buy Health, Not Medicine
  33. Hold Off On Proposing Solutions
  34. Doctors Kill
  35. The Logical Fallacy of Generalization from Fictional Evidence
  36. My Local Hospital
  37. How to Seem (and Be) Deep
  38. Megan Has A Point
  39. Original Seeing
  40. Fatty Food Is Healthy
  41. The “Outside the Box” Box
  42. Meta Honesty
  43. Cached Thoughts
  44. Health Hopes Spring Eternal
  45. Do We Believe Everything We’re Told?
  46. Chinks In The Bayesian Armor
  47. Priming and Contamination
  48. What Evidence Intuition?
  49. A Priori
  50. Regulation Ratchet
  51. No One Can Exempt You From Rationality’s Laws
  52. Flexible Legal Similarity
  53. Singlethink
  54. What Evidence Divergent Explanations?
  55. The Meditation on Curiosity
  56. Author Misreads Expert Re Crowds?
  57. Avoiding Your Belief’s Real Weak Points
  58. Why More History Than Futurism?
  59. We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think
  60. Why Not Dating Coaches?
  61. A Rational Argument
  62. Can School Debias?
  63. Recommended Rationalist Reading
  64. Confession Errors
  65. Open Thread
  66. Precious Silence, Lost

September 2007

  1. Rationalization
  2. Lies About Sex
  3. What Evidence Filtered Evidence?
  4. Jewish People and Israel
  5. The Bottom Line
  6. False Findings, Unretracted
  7. How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3
  8. Elusive Conflict Experts
  9. 9/26 is Petrov Day
  10. Drinking Our Own Kool-Aid
  11. Occam’s Razor
  12. Even When Contrarians Win, They Lose
  13. Einstein’s Arrogance
  14. History is written by the dissenters
  15. The Bright Side of Life
  16. How Much Evidence Does It Take?
  17. Treat Me Like a Statistic but Please Be Nice to Me
  18. Small Business Overconfidence
  19. The Lens That Sees Its Flaws
  20. Why so little model checking done in statistics?
  21. Bounded rationality and the conjunction fallacy
  22. What is Evidence?
  23. Radically Honest Meetings
  24. Burdensome Details
  25. Your Future Has Detail
  26. Conjunction Controversy (Or, How They Nail It Down)
  27. Why Teen Paternalism?
  28. Conjunction Fallacy
  29. Beware Monkey Traps
  30. Outputs Require Inputs
  31. Kahneman’s Planning Anecdote
  32. Epidemiology Doubts
  33. Planning Fallacy
  34. Don’t trust your lying eyes…
  35. Scott Adams on Bias
  36. Naive Small Investors
  37. Why I’m Blooking
  38. Noise in the Courtroom!
  39. Bias-awareness bias, or was 9/11/01 a “black swan”
  40. Doublethink (Choosing to be Biased)
  41. Acquisitions Signal CEO Dominance
  42. Human Evil and Muddled Thinking
  43. Gotchas Are Not Biases
  44. Rationality and the English Language
  45. Never Confuse “Could” and “Would”
  46. What Evidence Reluctant Authors?
  47. Applause Lights
  48. Bad College Quality Incentives
  49. We Don’t Really Want Your Participation
  50. Tyler Finds Overcoming Bias Is important, For Others
  51. Cut Medicine In Half
  52. Radical Honesty
  53. No Press Release, No Retraction
  54. The Crackpot Offer
  55. Anchoring and Adjustment
  56. Why is the Future So Absurd?
  57. Strength To Doubt Or Believe
  58. Availability
  59. The Denier’s Dilemna
  60. Absurdity Heuristic, Absurdity Bias
  61. Medical Quality Bias
  62. “Science” as Curiosity-Stopper
  63. Basic Research As Signal
  64. Explain/Worship/Ignore?
  65. The pinch-hitter syndrome: a general principle?
  66. What Evidence Ease of Imagination?
  67. Stranger Than History
  68. Bias As Objectification II
  69. Open Thread

August 2007

  1. Making History Available
  2. We Are Not Unbaised
  3. Failing to Learn from History
  4. Seeking Unbiased Game Host
  5. My Wild and Reckless Youth
  6. Kind Right-Handers
  7. Say Not “Complexity”
  8. The Function of Prizes
  9. Positive Bias: Look Into the Dark
  10. Is Overcoming Bias Important?
  11. The Futility of Emergence
  12. Mysterious Answers to Mysterious Questions
  13. Bias Against Torture
  14. Semantic Stopsigns
  15. Exccess Trust in Experts
  16. Fake Causality
  17. Is Hybrid Vigor IQ Warm And Fuzzy?
  18. Science as Attire
  19. Moral Bias as Group Glue
  20. Guessing the Teacher’s Password
  21. Nerds as Bad Connivers
  22. Why do corporations buy insurance?
  23. Fake Explanations
  24. Media Risk Bias Feedback
  25. Irrational Investment Disagreement
  26. Is Molecular Nanotechnology “Scientific”?
  27. Are More Complicated Revelations Less Probable?
  28. Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence
  29. Pseudo-Criticism
  30. Are brilliant scientists less likely to cheat?
  31. Hindsight Devalues Science
  32. Sometimes Learning Is Very Slow
  33. Hindsight bias
  34. Truth – The Neglected Virtue
  35. One Argument Against An Army
  36. Strangeness Heuristic
  37. Update Yourself Incrementally
  38. Harry Potter the Truth-Seeker
  39. Dangers of political betting markets
  40. Conservation of Expected Evidence
  41. Biases of Biography
  42. Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence
  43. Confident Proposer Bias
  44. I Defy the Data!
  45. What is a taboo question?
  46. Your Strength as a Rationalist
  47. Accountable Public Opinion
  48. Truth Bias
  49. The Apocalypse Bet
  50. Spencer Vs. Wilde on Truth Vs. Lie
  51. You Can Face Reality
  52. Food Vs. Sex Charity
  53. The Virtue of Narrowness
  54. Wishful Investing
  55. The Proper Use of Doubt
  56. Academic Political Bias
  57. Focus Your Uncertainty
  58. Disagreeing about cognitive style (or personality)
  59. The Importance of Saying “Oops”
  60. The Real Inter-Disciplinary Barrier
  61. Religion’s Claim to be Non-Disprovable
  62. Anonymous Review Matters
  63. Belief as Attire
  64. The Dogmatic Defense
  65. Professing and Cheering
  66. How to Torture a Reluctant Disagreer
  67. Open Thread

July 2007

  1. Two Meanings of ‘Overcoming Bias’ – For One: Focus is Fundamental. For Second: ?
  2. “Only Losers Overcome Bias”
  3. Bayesian Judo
  4. Self-Interest, Intent & Deceit
  5. Colorful Characters
  6. Belief in Belief
  7. Phone-Shy UFOs
  8. Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences)
  9. T.S. Eliot Quote
  10. Not Every Negative Judgment Is A Bias
  11. Schools That Don’t Want To Be Graded
  12. The Judo Principle
  13. Beware the Inside View
  14. Goofy Best Friend
  15. Meta Textbooks?
  16. Fantasy’s Essence
  17. Clever Controls
  18. Investing In Index Funds: A Tangible Reward of Overcoming Bias
  19. Bad Balance Bias
  20. Raging Memories
  21. Calibration in chess
  22. They’re Telling You They’re Lying!
  23. On Lying
  24. Gullible Then Skeptical
  25. How Biases Save Us From Giving in to Terrorism
  26. Privacy rights and cognitive bias
  27. Conspiracy Believers
  28. Blogging Doubts
  29. Radical Research Evaluation
  30. Looking for a Hard-Headed Blogger
  31. Goals and plans in decision making
  32. 7/7/07 Weddings
  33. Just Take The Average
  34. Two More Things to Unlearn from School
  35. Introducing Ramone
  36. Tell Your Anti-Story
  37. Reviewing Caplan’s Reviewers
  38. How should unproven findings be publicized?
  39. Global Warming Skeptics Charge Believers with more Cognitive Biases than Believers do Skeptics: Why the asymmetry?
  40. What is “Public” Info?
  41. Take Our Survey
  42. Let’s Bet on Talk
  43. What Signals What?
  44. Reply to “Libertarian Optimism Bias …”
  45. Biased Birth Rates
  46. Libertarian Optimism Bias vs. Statist Pessimism Bias
  47. Painfully Honest
  48. Biased Revenge?
  49. The Road Not Taken
  50. Open Thread

June 2007

  1. Biases are Fattening
  2. True Love and Unicorns
  3. Bayes: radical, liberal, or conservative?
  4. Extraordinary Physics
  5. Are Your Enemies Innately Evil?
  6. How to be Radical
  7. Fair Landowner Coffee
  8. Death Risk Biases
  9. Correspondence Bias
  10. Applaud Info, Not Agreement
  11. Risk-Free Bonds Aren’t
  12. Adam Smith on Overconfidence
  13. Ethics, Applied Vs. Meta
  14. Wandering Philosophers
  15. Randomly Review Criminal Cases
  16. Functional Is Not Optimal
  17. Were people better off in the middle ages than they are now?
  18. Selling Overcoming Bias
  19. Tell Me Your Politics and I Can Tell You What You Think About Nanotechnology
  20. Beware Neuroscience Stories
  21. Against Free Thinkers
  22. 1, 2, 3, Infinity
  23. Total vs. marginal effects, or, Are the overall benefits of health care “probably minor”?
  24. One reason why plans are good
  25. 200,000 Visits
  26. Choose: Credit or Influence
  27. Disagreement Case Study: Hanson and Hughes
  28. Odd Kid Names
  29. Uncovering Rational Irrationalities
  30. Blind Elites
  31. Blind Winners
  32. Disagreement Case Study: Hanson and Cutler
  33. Why Not Pre-Debate Talk?
  34. Nutritional Prediction Markets
  35. Progress Is Not Enough

May 2007

  1. Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton prediction market?
  2. Shock Response Futures
  3. Free Money, Going Fast
  4. Arrogance as Virtue
  5. Are any Human Cognitive Biases Genetically Universal?
  6. Hofstadter’s Law
  7. The Agency Problem
  8. My Podcast with Russ Roberts
  9. Truly Worth Honoring
  10. Scientists as Parrots
  11. In Obscurity Errors Remain
  12. Requesting Honesty
  13. Winning at Rock-Paper-Scissors
  14. Policy Tug-O-War
  15. Why Pretty HS Play Leads?
  16. The Perils of Being “Clearer than Truth”
  17. When Differences Make A Difference
  18. You Felt *Sorry* for Her?
  19. Do androids dream of electric rabbit feet?
  20. One Life Against the World
  21. Cheating as Status Symbol
  22. Underconfident Experts?
  23. Are Almost All Investors Biased?
  24. Data Management
  25. Are Any Human Cognitive Biases Genetic?
  26. Is Your Rationality on Standby?
  27. Jokehtml
  28. Opinions of the Politically Informed
  29. The case for dangerous testing
  30. I Had the Same Idea as David Brin! (Sort Of)
  31. RAND Experiment II Petition
  32. Scope Insensitivity
  33. Medicine As Scandal
  34. The U.S. Should Bet Against Iran Testing a Nuclear Weapon
  35. Medicare Train Wreck
  36. Eclipsing Nobel
  37. What Speaks Silence?
  38. The Worst You’ve Seen Isn’t the Worst There Is
  39. RAND Health Insurance Experiment II
  40. The Conspiracy Glitch
  41. Doubting Thomas and Pious Pete
  42. RAND Health Insurance Experiment
  43. Third Alternatives for Afterlife-ism
  44. Cold Fusion Continues
  45. Feel Lucky Punk?
  46. The Third Alternative
  47. Academics Against Evangelicals
  48. Race Bias of NBA Refs
  49. Brave US TV News, Not
  50. Beware the Unsurprised
  51. Academic Self-Interest Bias
  52. The bias in “please” and “thank you”
  53. Social Norms Need Neutrality, Simplicity
  54. Think Like Reality
  55. Overcoming Bias on The Simpsons
  56. EH Hunt helped LBJ Kill JFK?
  57. Myth of the Rational Academic

April 2007

  1. Today Is Honesty Day
  2. More On Future Self Paternalism
  3. Universal Law
  4. Universal Fire
  5. The Fallacy Fallacy
  6. To Learn or Credential?
  7. Feeling Rational
  8. Overconfidence Erases Doc Advantage
  9. The Bleeding Edge of Innovation
  10. Expert At Versus Expert On
  11. Meta Majoritarianism
  12. Future Self Paternalism
  13. Popularity Is Random
  14. Holocaust Denial
  15. Exercise Sizzle Works Sans Steak
  16. The Shame of Tax Loopholing
  17. Vonnegut on Overcoming Fiction
  18. Consolidated Nature of Morality Thread
  19. Irrationality or Gustibus?
  20. Your Rationality is My Business
  21. Statistical inefficiency = bias, or, Increasing efficiency will reduce bias (on average), or, There is no bias-variance tradeoff
  22. New Improved Lottery
  23. Overconfident Evaluation
  24. Lotteries: A Waste of Hope
  25. Just A Smile?
  26. Priors as Mathematical Objects
  27. Predicting the Future with Futures
  28. The Future is Glamorous
  29. Marginally Zero-Sum Efforts
  30. URGENT AND IMPORTANT (not)
  31. Futuristic Predictions as Consumable Goods
  32. Suggested Posts
  33. Modular Argument
  34. “Inductive Bias”
  35. Debiasing as Non-Self-Destruction
  36. Overcoming bias – what is it good for?
  37. As Good As It Gets
  38. Driving While Red
  39. Media Bias
  40. Could Gambling Save Science?
  41. Casanova on Innocence
  42. Black swans from the future
  43. Having to Do Something Wrong
  44. Knowing About Biases Can Hurt People
  45. A Tough Balancing Act
  46. Mapping Academia
  47. The Majority Is Always Wrong
  48. Overcoming Fiction
  49. The Error of Crowds
  50. Do moral systems have to make sense?
  51. Useful Statistical Biases

March 2007

  1. Big Issues vs Small Issues
  2. Tolstoy on Patriotism
  3. “Statistical Bias”
  4. Explain Your Wins
  5. Beware of Information Porn
  6. Info Has No Trend
  7. Tsuyoku vs. the Egalitarian Instinct
  8. Libertarian Purity Duels
  9. Tsuyoku Naritai! (I Want To Become Stronger)
  10. Reporting Chains Swallow Extraordinary Evidence
  11. Self-deception: Hypocrisy or Akrasia?
  12. The Very Worst Kind of Bias
  13. Home Sweet Home Bias
  14. Norms of Reason and the Prospects for Technologies and Policies of Debiasing
  15. Useful bias
  16. Chronophone Motivations
  17. Archimedes’s Chronophone
  18. Masking Expert Disagreement
  19. Morality of the Future
  20. Moral Progress and Scope of Moral Concern
  21. Awareness of Intimate Bias
  22. All Ethics Roads Lead To Ours?
  23. Challenges of Majoritarianism
  24. Classic Bias Doubts
  25. Philosophical Majoritarianism
  26. Useless Medical Disclaimers
  27. Arguments and Duels
  28. Believing in Todd
  29. Ideologues or Fools?
  30. Bias caused by fear of Islamic extremists
  31. Bias on Self-Control Bias
  32. Multipolar disagreements (Hal’s religious quandry)
  33. Superstimuli and the Collapse of Western Civilization
  34. Good News Only Please
  35. Blue or Green on Regulation?
  36. 100,000 Visits
  37. Disagreement Case Study: Robin Hanson and David Balan
  38. The Trouble With Track Records
  39. Disagreement Case Study – Balan and I
  40. Moral Dilemmas, Criticism, & Plumping
  41. The Scales of Justice, the Notebook of Rationality
  42. None Evil or All Evil?
  43. Biases, by and large
  44. Disagreement Case Study – Hawk Bias
  45. Overcome Cognitive Bias with Multiple Selves
  46. Extreme Paternalism
  47. Learn From Politicians’ Personal Failings
  48. Whose Framing?
  49. Who Are The God Experts?
  50. Bias Against Introverts?
  51. Paternal policies fight cognitive bias, slash information costs, and privelege responsible subselves
  52. The Fog of Disagreement
  53. Burch’s Law
  54. Let’s Get Ready to Rumble!!
  55. Rational Agent Paternalism
  56. The “Give Us More Money” Bias
  57. White-collar crime and moral freeloading
  58. Happy Capital Day
  59. Outlandish Pundits
  60. Policy Debates Should Not Appear One-Sided
  61. Romantic Predators
  62. Swinging for the Fences when You Should Bunt
  63. Paternalism Is About Bias
  64. You Are Not Hiring the Top 1%
  65. Morality or Manipulation?
  66. Accountable Financial Regulation

February 2007

  1. Medical Study Biases
  2. This Is My Dataset. There Are Many Datasets Like It, but This One Is Mine. . .
  3. Professors Progress Like Ads Advise
  4. Marginally Revolved Biases
  5. Calibrate Your Ad Response
  6. Disagreement Case Studies
  7. Just Lose Hope Already
  8. Less Biased Memories
  9. Think Frequencies, Not Probabilities
  10. Fig Leaf Models
  11. Do We Get Used to Stuff, But Not Friends?
  12. Buss on True Love
  13. Is Overcoming Bias Male?
  14. Bias in the Classroom
  15. How paranoid should I be? The limits of ‘overcoming bias’.
  16. Evidence-Based Medicine Backlash
  17. Politics is the Mind-Killer
  18. Disagreement on Inflation
  19. Moderate Moderation
  20. Bias Toward Certainty
  21. Selection Bias in Economic Theory
  22. Induce Presidential Candidates to Take IQ Tests
  23. crackpot people and crackpot ideas
  24. Press Confirms Your Health Fears
  25. Too Many Loner Theorists?
  26. Words for Love and Sex
  27. It’s Sad When Bad Ideas Drive Out Good Ones
  28. Truth is stranger than fiction
  29. Posterity Review Comes Cheap
  30. Reputation Commitment Mechanism
  31. More Lying
  32. Is Truth in the Hump or the Tails?
  33. What Opinion Game Do We Play?
  34. Philip Tetlock’s Long Now Talk
  35. The More Amazing Penn
  36. When are weak clues uncomfortable?
  37. Detecting Lies
  38. How and When to Listen to the Crowd
  39. Institutions as Levers
  40. Will Blog Posts Get Credit?
  41. Needed: Cognitive forensics?
  42. Control Variables Avoid Bias
  43. Dare to Deprogram Me?
  44. Bias and Health Care
  45. Just World Bias and Inequality
  46. Subduction Phrases
  47. What Evidence in Silence or Confusion?
  48. Gender Profiling
  49. Unequal Inequality
  50. Academic Tool Overconfidence?
  51. Why are there No Comforting Words that Aren’t also Factual Statements?

January 2007

  1. Prizes versus Grants
  2. Wanted: A Meta-Poll
  3. Excess Signaling Example
  4. Rationalization
  5. Against Admirable Activities
  6. Effects of Ideological Media Persuasion
  7. Galt on Abortion and Bias
  8. The Procrastinator’s Clock
  9. Keeping score
  10. Agree With Young Duplicate
  11. Sick of Textbook Errors
  12. Manipulating Jury Biases
  13. What Insight in Innocence?
  14. On Policy, Fact Experts Ignore Facts
  15. The Butler Did It, of Course!
  16. No Death of a Buyerman
  17. Is There Such a Thing as Bigotry?
  18. Moby Dick Seeks Thee Not!
  19. Morale Markets vs Decision Markets
  20. Follow Your Passion, From A Distance
  21. A Model of Extraordinary Claims
  22. Socially Influenced Beliefs
  23. Agree with Yesterday’s Duplicate
  24. Outside the Laboratory
  25. Symmetry Is Not Pretty
  26. Some Claims Are Just Too Extraordinary
  27. Women’s Mathematical Abilities
  28. Benefits of Cost-Benefit Analyis
  29. Godless Professors
  30. How to Not Spend Money
  31. Sometimes the Facts are Irrelevant
  32. 70 For Me, 30 For You
  33. Some People Just Won’t Quit
  34. Statistical Discrimination is (Probably) Bad
  35. Smoking Warning Labels
  36. Conclusion-Blind Review
  37. Is More Information Always Better?
  38. Should we Defer to Secret Evidence?
  39. Peaceful Speculation
  40. Supping with the Devil
  41. Disagree with Suicide Rock
  42. Biased Courtship
  43. Reject Your Personality’s Politics
  44. Epidemics are 98% Below Average
  45. Bias not a bug but a feature?
  46. A game for self-Calibration?
  47. Why Allow Referee Bias?
  48. Disagreement at Thoughts, Arguments and Rants
  49. Hobgoblins of Voter Minds
  50. How Are We Doing?
  51. Avoiding Truth
  52. Conspicuous Consumption of Info
  53. We Can’t Foresee To Disagree
  54. Do Biases Favor Hawks?
  55. Convenient Bias Theories
  56. Fair betting odds and Prediction Market prices
  57. The cognitive architecture of bias
  58. All Bias is Signed
  59. Two Cheers for Ignoring Plain Facts
  60. What if Everybody Overcame Bias?
  61. Discussions of Bias in answers to the Edge 2007 Question
  62. Why Don’t the Young Learn from the Old?
  63. The Coin Guessing Game
  64. A Honest Doctor, Sort Of

← 2006 2009–2010 →